The Houston Astros will attempt to take a stranglehold of the ALCS when they visit the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Astros held serve at home, winning Games 1 and 2 in tense fashion. The losing pitcher in Game 2, Luis Severino, said Houston “got lucky,” while manager Aaron Boone blamed the wind. Regardless of whether luck or skill carried the day, Houston bettors cashed their tickets.
Can Houston secure a 3-0 lead or will the Yankees climb back into this series? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions below.
Astros vs Yankees best odds
Astros vs Yankees picks and predictions
When the New York Yankees inked Gerrit Cole to a nine-year, $324 million deal in 2020, they had games like this in mind. Falling behind 3-0 in a four-game series is, for all practical purposes, a kiss of death.
Only the Bombers themselves have ever blown a 3-0 series lead when the Red Sox pulled off the seemingly impossible back in 2004. Cole should be able to answer the call and keep the Yankees in this ALCS, and he’ll likely accomplish it by pitching to his strength, which is striking out the world.
Cole’s heroics have gone a long way in keeping New York in the playoffs – he got the win in Games 1 and 4 of the ALDS against the Cleveland Guardians, authoring a 2.03 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. The California native has more than earned his reputation as a clutch performer, as he’s 10-5 with a 2.81 ERA in 16 lifetime starts in the postseason.
He’s registered a staggering 127 strikeouts over 99 1-3 innings pitched in the playoffs. That includes his 16 Ks over 13 1-3 innings against the Guardians earlier this month.
Cole – once a Houston Astro – has wreaked havoc on his former team since coming to the Bronx, producing a 1.17 ERA over three starts against them. He’s held Houston to 12 hits over 23 innings of work while tallying 24 strikeouts.
The Yankees ace led the majors in Ks during the regular season, fanning 257 batters over 200 2-3 innings, or 1.28 per inning. Extrapolate that number over six frames and Cole should reach seven strikeouts (rounded down from 7.6).
He’s cleared 6.5 strikeouts in 22 of his last 30 starts, including a 7-1 run over his last eight efforts.
My best bet: Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 strikeouts (+100)
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Astros vs Yankees ALCS odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 Houston Astros |
-650 |
 New York Yankees |
+500 |
Astros vs Yankees moneyline analysis
The Yankees are a fair price on the moneyline, so they look like the better bet in this spot, and it’s not just because they’re in what’s essentially a “must-win” scenario.
The Bombers are 24-11 in their last 35 games following an off day, so time off has afforded them a chance to recharge the batteries and reset the bullpen.
New York didn’t have that luxury after the ALDS due to a Game 5 rainout, as they had to grind out an emotional win on Tuesday, then jump on a plane and play Game 1 in Houston on Wednesday. The Astros, meanwhile, had been idle since sweeping the Mariners on Oct. 15.
Cristian Javier has been an effective swingman for Houston all year long, but he appears to be overmatched by Cole in this spot. Astros manager Dusty Baker is likely considering all the ways he can string together 27 outs with his relief arms, while Bombers skipper Aaron Boone is probably counting on Cole for at least seven frames.
Look for Cole to keep putting up zeroes before Clay Holmes & Co. step in to finish the job against an Astros order that’s 4-for-32 (.125) with runners in scoring position. Jose Altuve being 0-for-23 in these playoffs also stands out.
Astros vs Yankees Over/Under analysis
The Yankees have struggled mightily at the plate in the postseason, just like the Astros have following an 8-7 win over Seattle in Game 1 of the ALDS, so bettors shouldn’t anticipate a high-scoring Saturday affair.
New York hit a meagre .182 in the ALDS and is an even worse .138 in this series (9-for-65). Aaron Judge, the AL record-holder for home runs in a season (62), is 5-for-28 (.179) in the playoffs, albeit with two dingers.
A slew of trends suggests an Under is in store for this one. The Yankees have gone below the total in four straight, and in seven of their last eight games against right-handed starters.
The Under is 18-7-1 in the Bombers’ last 26 games after scoring two or fewer runs in their previous game and is 35-14-2 in their last 51 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The Astros have gone below the total in five straight games against starters with a WHIP below 1.15, and in seven of their last 10 games following an off day.
Astros vs Yankees trend to know
The Under is 6-2-1 in the Astros’ last nine road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Yankees
Astros vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, October 22, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 5:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Cristian Javier (11-9, 2.58 ERA): Cristian Javier was last seen holding the Mariners to one run over 1 1-3 innings during a wild Game 1 of the ALDS on Oct. 11, but had ended the regular season on a 23-inning scoreless streak. He struck out 13 Yankees in seven shutout innings on June 25 en route to a combined no-hitter completed by Hector Neris and Ryan Pressly at Yankee Stadium.
Gerrit Cole (15-8, 3.41 ERA): Gerrit Cole came up clutch in the ALDS to send Cleveland packing, as he produced a 2.03 ERA and a 16-2 strikeout-walk ratio over 13 1-3 innings of work. He was on the losing end of the no-hitter the Astros authored on June 25 but he did his job, holding Houston to one run over seven frames.
Astros vs Yankees latest injuries
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Astros vs Yankees weather
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