Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want, if you're betting pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Wednesday, August 28.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: August 28
Arrighetti o2.5 earned runs (-135)
Canning u1.5 walks allowed (+135)
Musgrove u17.5 outs (-119)
Freeland u17.5 outs (-110)
C.Burnes u17.5 outs (+140)
Today’s best SP angles
Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies
The angle: It's going to feel like 100 degrees with 10-mph winds blowing out.
Spencer Arrighetti is in a tough spot this afternoon in the hot hot heat of Citizens Bank Park. There is also a decent 10-mph wind blowing out to right field. This is the toughest pitching park of the day — highlighted by a total of 9.5 — and the indoor pitcher could be laboring vs. an elite offense that had no issues beating up Justin Verlander yesterday.
The rookie owns a 5.29 ERA on the road this year and his Under 5.5 strikeouts at plus money projects well, but he also projects for over 3.0 earned runs on an estimated pitch count that might be a bit low at 84 pitches. Any more work is only going to help the Phillies stack more runs.
The move: Spencer Arrighetti Over 2.5 earned runs (-135 at bet365)
Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers
The angle: Griffin Canning goes from a bulk role to a starter with possible rain projected.
Griffin Canning's last game came as a reliever, where he went 74 pitches and six innings. He might have a shorter leash after a lower workload but there is also a chance of rain which could further abbreviate his outing.
It's an easy matchup for the visitor, who is getting +135 to throw one or fewer walks, something he has done in two straight outings. He projects for 1.55 walks on 89 pitches, but the chance for fewer pitches is legit today.
Detroit ranks 22nd in BB% over the last 30 days and the LA bullpen has not used its best high-leverage arms since Friday — the Halos have to get their RPs some work today.
Even if he does get a full workload, the probability is still good at this price.
The move: Griffin Canning Under 1.5 walks allowed (+135 at bet365)
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals
The angle: Joe Musgrove has to battle the heat and a possible 75-pitch limit.
Joe Musgrove has made three starts since returning from a long IL stint in May and has yet to top 75 pitches in any of those games. He also hasn't increased his pitch count over those outings and there isn't any reason to believe the right-hander will jump into the 80s today.
It's also going to be 90+ degrees in St. Louis today and we saw Dylan Cease struggle in the heat yesterday when he went just 14 outs. THE BAT is projecting 16.2 total outs on a pitch count of 87, which is very much the ceiling.
There is a good chance that he settles at 75-80 pitches, which would lower that projection on the total outs. There isn't a lot of wiggle room here, but I'd buy Musgrove's Under 17.5 outs at -125 or better today. The slight risk of rain also helps here.
The move: Joe Musgrove Under 17.5 outs (-119 at Caesars)
Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies
The angle: Kyle Freeland is coming off a season-high 106 pitches.
Kyle Freeland has a 7.34 ERA on the road and an unsustainable 3.86 ERA at Coors with a weak 6.3 K/9 on home turf. He also threw a whopping 106 pitches in his last start which easily topped his previous season-high of just 95 pitches — and he had averaged just 82.5 pitches per start over his prior 10 outings.
With an outs total of 17.5 and a projection of just 15.7 outs, the Under at -110 is an easy buy today. His Under 4.5 punchouts have been bet heavily and have moved from -120 to as short as -162.
The books valued the matchup too highly today vs. Miami, but with his previous workload and a Coors setting, even the fish can beat up the lefty.
The move: Kyle Freeland Under 17.5 outs (-110 at bet365)
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The angle: Corbin Burnes faltering down the stretch and has tough matchup with good hitting conditions.
Corbin Burnes has pitched to an 8.71 ERA over his last four starts and has slipped in the AL Cy Young odds race because of it. He is getting hit often with 29 hits allowed over his last four starts and projects for just 15.8 outs today, per THE BAT.
It's a tough matchup vs. the Dodgers and 10-mph winds blowing out aren't helping. Also working against the Baltimore starter is the bullpen, which has a trio of middle relievers that haven't pitched in four days.
Additionally, with Baltimore just one game back of the Yankees in the AL East, any continuing faltering could cause a quick hook.
The move: Corbin Burnes Under 17.5 outs (+140 at bet365)
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