A disappointing Toronto Blue Jays season is coming down the home stretch, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still find value in backing the Blue Birds.
On Friday night, they play host to the St. Louis Cardinals for the opener of a three-game interleague set. The Cards are also on the outside looking in when it comes to the postseason picture.
So, motivation becomes the question, and my Cardinals vs. Blue Jays predictions like the bats to do some home cooking tonight.
Check out my MLB picks to learn why I'm backing offense from the Jays.
Cardinals vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays team total Over 3.5 (-145 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Despite this being a lost season for the Toronto Blue Jays, there's no doubt that the team has been much more fun to watch since the trade deadline, when they restocked the farm system and allowed more young guys to get at-bats.
Watching Vladimir Guerrero Jr. crush baseballs at a ridiculous rate hasn’t been too bad either.
So, with Vladdy leading the way and guys like Spencer Horwitz, Joey Loperfido, and Will Wagner finally giving him support, the Blue Jays lineup has been productive. Even, dare I say, good?
Well, that’s what the numbers say. Toronto ranks ninth in batting average, sixth in OPS and wRC+ since the start of August and I like them to continue that trend when they dig into the batter’s box tonight against St. Louis Cardinals starter Erick Fedde.
The Cardinals acquired Fedde from the Chicago White Sox at the trade deadline, and somewhat surprisingly, he hasn’t pitched as well with his new team. The 31-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 4.30 ERA and a 5.09 FIP while surrendering a .756 OPS over seven starts as a member of the Red Birds.
Fedde also made a start against the Blue Jays earlier in the season as a member of the White Sox, and they tagged him for five earned runs on seven hits over six innings of work (more on that outing down below).
When you also consider the fact that the St. Louis bullpen has been an average-at-best group in the second half of the season (18th in xFIP, 24th in strikeouts per nine innings) and the Blue Jays have some value when it comes to cashing the Over on their team total on Friday night.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 RBI (+195 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Anyone who reads my Blue Jays picks regularly knows we’ve spent a lot of time betting on Guerrero RBIs this season. Can you blame us though? Anyways, we’re going to give Vladdy the night off tonight and instead turn to his teammate, Daulton Varsho.
Varsho is a gold-glove caliber center fielder, and like many of his teammates, he’s been more productive at the plate following the trade deadline. The left-handed slugger is hitting .252 with a .759 OPS, including five doubles, a triple, and a dinger, and has driven in 12 runs.
He also really enjoyed his last matchup with Fedde. Varsho went 2-4 in that game with a home run and an RBI. He's 3-7 in his career vs. Fedde, with two of those hits leaving the ballpark. That works out to a .499 expected batting average and a 1.129 expected slugging.
Varsho is +195 to drive in a run tonight, which, according to our Covers Prop Projections, makes this a five-star play.
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Cardinals vs Blue Jays odds
Cardinals vs Blue Jays live odds
Cardinals vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis +115 | Toronto -135
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 -180 | Toronto -1.5 +150
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0
Cardinals vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as -135 home favorites and that's where they remain as of early Friday afternoon.
- The Blue Jays' starter for this game is still TBD as of Friday afternoon, but don't be surprised if Kevin Gausman gets the call. He has a 2.56 ERA over his last six starts and would explain why they Jays are listed at this price against a solid starter like Fedde.
- The total hit the board at an even 8.0 and has yet to move off the opening number.
- I am on the Blue Jays to go Over their team total, so I would lean to the full-game Over as well, even if Gausman gets the call. Whoever is on the mound will at some point have to hand the ball over to a bullpen that has the third-worst ERA in baseball.
Cardinals vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Over in 33 of their last 49 games at home for +17.90 Units and a 33% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Blue Jays.
Cardinals vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, 9-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Midwest, Sportsnet |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Erick Fedde (8-9, 3.39 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | TBD |
Cardinals vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Cardinals vs Blue Jays weather
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