The Arizona Diamondbacks welcome the Milwaukee Brewers for a National League series at Chase Field this weekend with the first game tonight at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Arizona is currently installed as a -115 favorite, but my Brewers vs. Diamondbacks MLB prediction leans toward the underdog, primarily because of the pitching matchup.
Read more about why Freddy Peralta and the Brew Crew will roll is among my best MLB picks for Friday, September 13.
Brewers vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Brewers ML (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks and he should struggle, as he possesses a 5.83 ERA and 1.53 WHIP through six starts this season.
His underlying metrics are even worse, as the southpaw sports a 6.19 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBAA, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. He’s struggled with his command and that puts Arizona in a bad spot considering the Milwaukee Brewers are starting Freddy Peralta.
Milwaukee's de facto ace this season, Peralta is 10-8 through 29 starts with a 3.81 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The righty's analytics are equally strong as he ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate.
Peralta also enters this matchup in good form, going 3-1 over his past five starts with a 2.33 ERA. That success should continue against the D-backs, a team he is 3-0 against through four career meetings with a 0.55 ERA.
The Brewers’ pitching advantage doesn’t end there, since their bullpen also out-ranks Arizona’s in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
Brewers vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers ML
Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 strikeouts
Gary Sanchez Over 0.5 hits
We're also backing Peralta in the strikeout market as he's in the 87th percentile in whiff rate and 79th percentile in strikeout rate. You can find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total that he has doubled in each of his past two starts against Arizona.
We also need some offense from the Brewers, which brings me to Gary Sanchez: Through 26 career plate appearances against Rodriguez, Sanchez boasts a .250 BA, .600 SLG and .429 wOBA. He has also recorded a hit in three of his past four games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Diamondbacks odds
Brewers vs Diamondbacks live odds
Brewers vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +100 | Arizona -120
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 | Arizona -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Brewers vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Arizona opened as a -120 favorite and has since been bet down to -115.
- The total opened at 8.5 and remains at that number as of Friday afternoon.
- I'd expect this total to move to nine rather than eight, given that both teams rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and stolen bases.
Brewers vs Diamondbacks trend
Milwaukee has won in each of Peralta’s past two starts against Arizona. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Diamondbacks.
Brewers vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Friday, 9-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, ARID |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (10-8, 3.81 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Eduardo Rodriguez (2-2, 5.83 ERA) |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Brewers vs Diamondbacks weather
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