Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want, if you're betting pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Friday, August 30.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: August 30
Martinez u5.5 hits allowed (+115)
Perez u4.5 strikeouts (-110)
Lively u5.5 hits allowed (+120)
Kirby u17.5 outs recorded (+170)
Today’s best SP angles
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
The angle: Nick Martinez threw just 54 pitches in his last start.
The Reds' Nick Martinez head-scratchingly threw just 54 pitches in his last start, which was odd after he threw 86 and 80 in his previous two. If he is on a pitch count, he could have another short outing today as he is approaching a three-year high in innings pitched.
The best bet here is his Under 5.5 hits allowed. It can win if he does get a full leash... but will hold a ton of value if he is capped. He is allowing a hit per inning on the year and projects for just 15 outs with a workload of 86 pitches.
The +115 at bet365 is 10 points better than the next best price but I would only buy this to +105. There is a ton of variance in this play, especially with a doubleheader, but at +115, it's worth the risk.
The move: Nick Martinez Under 5.5 hits allowed (+115 at bet365)
San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays
The angle: Martin Perez coming back down to earth.
After making the move to San Diego in August, Martin Perez was pitching above his numbers, but that has come to a stop over his last two games where he has totaled just 8 1/3 innings and has seen his swinging strikes level out.
Simply put, Perez is not missing bats and he might not get more than five innings today.
His Under 4.5 strikeouts at -110 just makes the card today, thanks to a bad Tampa offense. The Padres need to get their winning ways back and won't mess around with Perez if he falters for a third straight start.
A sub-80 pitch game is very possible.
The move: Martin Perez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians
The angle: Ben Lively is coming off a season-high 105 pitches which were 20 more pitches than his previous 10 start average.
Ben Lively had averaged 85 pitches per start across his first 22 outings before tossing 105 balls in his last game. He has an easy matchup today vs. the Pirates so if he is scaled back, his Under 5.5 hits market is the best bet here.
Lively has hit this Under in six straight starts on a full leash, so even if does go 85-90 pitches, there is still an out here. The best-case scenario is a five-inning cap on the starter, as Cleveland can't let games slip away right now with how tight the AL Central race is.
There are multiple ways this can hit and I'd play the Under to -120.
The move: Ben Lively Under 5.5 hits allowed (+120 at bet365)
Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels
The angle: Big price for George Kirby to continue to go fewer than 18 outs.
George Kirby has not gone 18 outs in four of his last five starts, despite getting 95+ pitches in each. He has a 5.84 ERA over that stretch — and has faced bad offenses in Pittsburgh, Detroit (2x), and San Francisco, making betting against him vs. the Halos a little easier.
His ERA is one point higher on the road this year and I'm a sucker for Under 17.5 out props at big money, as there are so many paths to the Under compared to the Over. THE BAT is projecting this as a coinflip but +170 is hard to turn down, especially with the wind blowing out as well.
The Mariners were also off yesterday so the bullpen is rested. If Kirby gets into trouble, a hook could come as Seattle is still fighting for a playoff spot.
The move: George Kirby Under 17.5 outs recorded (+170 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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