Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Friday, September 6.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 6
Gil o5.5 strikeouts (-105)
Cabrera u5.5 strikeouts (-105)
Pfaadt u17.5 outs (+125)
King u17.5 outs (+150)
Today’s best SP angles
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs
The angle: Luis Gil is activated off the IL but threw 80 pitches in his rehab start and is stretched out.
New York starter Luis Gil was on the shelf with a back injury and missed two weeks of action. He had just one warm-up game, but threw 80 pitches over 11 outs while striking out six. He has a 10.4 K/9 on the season and his Over 5.5 Ks today projects well with the projections expecting 6.2 punchouts on 94 pitches.
The wind is blowing in at 20 mph today at Wrigley Field, so Gil will have that to help him get deep while the Cubs are an average K% team.
It's the first game of a series so New York could be hesitant to go to the pen early, but Gil can get this Over in just five innings of work. It's a buy to -125.
The move: Luis Gil Over 5.5 strikeouts (-105 at BetMGM)
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins
The angle: Edward Cabrera has padded his K stats vs. bad teams
Edward Cabrera has more than a K per inning on the season but a deeper look into his big strikeout performances shows some weak opponents.
In the games he has gone Over his 5.5 K total, he's faced Colorado (2x), San Francisco, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Cincinnati — five teams in the Top 11 in K% on the year.
Today, against the Phillies, is a much tougher task and the right-hander projects for just 4.95 Ks, giving the Under a ton of value.
Cabrera is 8-8 O/U on this prop this year but he doesn't have the longest leash and projects for 85 pitches. He has gone more than 15 outs just six times, making his Under 15.5 outs a play at -110 as well.
Philly just saw Cabrera four starts ago and the Miami pitcher lasted 12 outs on 82 pitches because he was knocked around for six runs including four walks... and he struck out two batters.
I'd play this down to 4.5 at plus money.
The move: Edward Cabrera Under 5.5 strikeouts (-105 at DraftKings)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros
The angle: Brandon Pfaadt is running out of gas in a season of career-high innings pitched.
Brandon Pfaadt has escaped most of the year being an efficient pitcher but the regression police have arrived as the righty has a 6.08 ERA over his last seven starts — and that includes facing some poor offenses in Miami, Colorado, and Pittsburgh (2x).
He has failed to get 18 outs in four of those games, including three outings in a row. His 51 hits over those 40 innings are something that can get him knocked out of games and with Arizona in the middle of a playoff run, his leash will be shorter if there are struggles.
He is paying plus money for Under 17.5 outs and the projections have him for 15.7 outs. This is a great Under, especially with a bullpen that has all but one arm available.
He is also coming off back-to-back 98-pitch starts, where his 10-game average before that was just 84.3 pitches.
The move: Brandon Pfaadt Under 17.5 outs (+125 at bet365)
San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres
The angle: Michael King's control and price are a target for an Under 17.5 outs.
I love Under 17.5 outs at big plus money and Michael King is paying +150 to get fewer than 18 outs tonight.
King has gone Under 17.5 outs in back-to-back starts and is coming off a 103-pitch outing where he had thrown just 85 pitches in the game before and averaged 91.2 pitches per start in his previous 10.
He's hitting this Under at 50% since June 1 and has a 16:10 K:BB ratio over his last three starts (15 1/3 innings), as some command issues are driving up his pitch count.
King might flirt with his strikeout Over tonight vs. the Giants, but that is only going to drive up his pitch total. He projects for 16.2 outs; this is a big price on a guy with a shorter leash and who sits at 150+ innings pitched when his previous high was 104 innings last year.
The move: Michael King Under 17.5 outs (+150 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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