It's the true Opening Day, and leashes are all over the place. It's a great day to find out what is priced in and what isn't within all the glorious pitcher prop markets. Let's find a trio of gems today.
These are my three favorite MLB picks and pitcher props for Thursday, March 27.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: March 27
Gilbert Under 17.5 outs (+185 at bet365)
Skubal Under 17.5 outs (+100 at BetMGM)
Burke Over 4.5 Ks (+102 at BetRivers)
Today’s best SP angles
Athletics vs. Mariners
The angle: Logan Gilbert's outs-recorded prop is in mid-season form.
The move: Logan Gilbert Under 17.5 outs (+185 at bet365)
This is as big a price as you will ever see in March. Getting through six innings is no easy task in the first start of the season and getting +185 is a gift. The range of outcomes where this Under hits is very close to the range of outcomes for the Over.
THE BAT has Seattle Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert throwing 87 pitches and lasting just 16.9 outs. Even if the projection was 17.5 outs, this would be showing a ton of value.
The books could be discounting the Athletics too much in this spot. They are better than last year, and the third time through the order, especially at the top, will be tougher to navigate for the Seattle starter.
Gilbert was a beast last year, but he has had some control issues in the Spring with seven walks over 15 innings. He also gave up five home runs. Matching last year's efficiency will be a tough task, especially on a smaller pitch count.
Tigers vs. Dodgers
The angle: Another good pitcher with an out market set a little too high for start No.1
The move: Tarik Skubal Under 17.5 outs recorded (+100 at BetMGM)
We all know how good Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is. He was incredible the last time we saw him, but it is Opening Day on the road vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers. This is not an easy assignment for the lefty.
THE BAT projects 15.9 total outs from Skubal on 87 total pitches. This Dodgers lineup is no joke, and Mookie Betts is expected back after dealing with an illness in Japan.
Skubal went just 83 pitches in his first game last year and didn't hit 100 pitches until July 12, which was start No.19. He is the most important piece of this team, and if the Tigers are trailing, there will be no need to push the starter. I don't think the matchup is priced in enough here and a sub-90 pitch count is very possible, even if he's pitching well.
Angels vs. White Sox
The angle: Sean Burke is relatively unknown and can miss bats vs. a bad LAA lineup
The move: Sean Burke Over 4.5 strikeouts (+102 at BetRivers)
Sean Burke is not a well-known player and is the Opening Day starter for a bad Chicago White Sox team, but he has some eye-popping K numbers and could get five punchouts in just a few innings of work.
The weather is in his favor, with double-digits blowing in, and seven Los Angeles Angels batters will likely be right-handed facing the righty pitcher.
Burke threw 87 pitches in his last spring outing and projects for 4.8 strikeouts today vs. one of the worst lineups in baseball. In his three starts last year where he threw 84+ pitches, he struck out 19 batters over 16 innings and should be good for a K per inning, with the weather aiding him in getting to 15 outs.
Not intended for use in MA.
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