Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply said information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Tuesday, October 1.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: October 1
Skubal u4.5 hits allowed (+128)
King o5.5 strikeouts (-110)
Severino o16.5 outs (+110)
Today’s best SP angles
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
The angle: Riding one of the best bets of the summer.
The Detroit Tigers' magic will extend into the postseason and that means Tarik Skubal will get the ball this afternoon vs. the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the Wild Card series. Skubal will win the AL Cy Young and he has been dialed in of late with a 1.94 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in nine starts since August 7.
He has also given up just 39 hits over those 55+ innings and that's what I'm targeting for my bet today. Skubal's Under 4.5 hits allowed is paying plus money and has hit in seven of those nine starts. Skubal could just deal and hit this Under or he could be a victim of a short leash, which happens in the postseason.
Skubal's current manager is AJ Hinch was the Houston bench boss from 2014 to 2019. He will have a game plan for his pitcher and will certainly be motivated. The Detroit bullpen is rested and is also a strength. Six innings and three or four hits is very doable. He projects for 4.6 hits allowed so anything at +105 or better is a play for me.
The move: Tarik Skubal Under 5.5 hits allowed (+128 at bet365)
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres
The angle: Michael King's K potential is being undervalued.
The San Diego Padres are going with Michael King as their Game 1 starter for a reason and that's because he has been lights out down the stretch. Since the All-Star break, the right-hander has totaled 72 Ks over 62+ innings. He has thrown more punchouts than innings pitched in six of his last 10 starts, which includes a robust 11.4 K/9 at Petco Field.
The Atlanta Braves are coming off two emotional games yesterday and even if King goes just 15 outs, he can go Over this number. He projects for 6.5 strikeouts across 90 pitches, which is a great base number for his pitch count today. With a possible three-game series with no breaks, if King is dealing, there is no need to burn the bullpen. Only Freddy Peralta projects for more punchouts today than King.
The move: Michael King Over 5.5 strikeouts (-110 at bet365)
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers
The angle: The Mets need length out of Severino.
Thanks to yesterday's doubleheader where the New York Mets had to use over five innings from the bullpen, they need Luis Severino to go deep today to give the arms a rest. Severino is a sneaky bet for his Over outs because he usually sits around 90 pitches but also hit triple digits in three of his final eight starts. He can get deep today vs. a Milwaukee Brewers team that was off yesterday and boasts one of the lighter-hitting lineups in the postseason.
Over the last 30 days, the Brewers rank 23rd in wRC+ and 22nd in wOBA. The backend of this order is easy to navigate and Severino can see 27 batters today before handing things off. Even with a shorter pitch count of late, Severino has gone 18 outs or more in four of his last five as the Mets have relied on him mightily and that's why he is starting today after the Mets didn't need him in the second game of the yesterday's two-fer.
Severino projects for 15.3 outs, but that's with a low pitch count, which might be shorting him in this spot. He has an elite framing catcher and a pitcher umpire in Junior Valentine. I'd buy the Over 16.5 outs to -110 or better but the market might be buying the Under because of THE BAT projections. It might be a case of wait and get a better price with this Over.
The move: Luis Severino Over 16.5 outs (+110 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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