Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not reach the same conclusion as I do but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Tuesday, October 8.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: October 8
King u4.5 hits allowed (-130)- SD F3 innings team total o1.5 (+135)
PHI/
NYM First 5 Under 4 (+100)
Today’s best SP angles
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres
The angle: Michael King has been unhittable since the All-Star break and projects for the lowest hits allowed today of any pitcher.
Although King allowed five hits in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round, it was because he was missing a ton of bats with 12 strikeouts — with the stuff he had, the San Diego Padres let him go 21 outs, which likely won't happen today. THE BAT is projecting for 13.6 outs and 4.11 hits allowed, plus San Diego's bullpen is in great shape after a day off yesterday.
Pitching at Petco is a good thing for King, too: The right-hander has a 1.75 ERA at home since the beginning of July, giving up just 52 hits over 68 innings in that span.
King's teammate, Yu Darvish, held these same Dodgers to three hits on Sunday. With the pen ready and King in elite form, he has multiple paths to get the Under 4.5 hits allowed. I'd buy this to -135 and if it gets shorter, feel free to put the Under 2.5 earned runs to boost the odds slightly.
The move: Michael King Under 4.5 hits allowed (-130 at Hard Rock)
The angle: The Padres have been ambushing the LA starting pitching and Walker Buehler could get touched early
The Padres have put up eight total runs in the first three innings of this NLDS. The first time through the order has not been kind to Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitching and that could happen again for Buehler, who is not expected to get deep today with an outs market of 14.5.
San Diego took Yashinobu Yamamoto for five runs across the first three innings in Game 1, then Jack Flaherty gave up a home run in the first two frames of Game 2. San Diego is being very aggressive early and taking daddy hacks vs. the Dodgers' starters, which are the weakest point of this team.
Petco Park is going to be insane, which will fuel the Padres bats early. I like the San Diego team total Over 1.5 runs at +135 in the first three innings more than the o2.5 +110 in the first five innings but both are good looks.
The first three innings bet almost guarantees the top of the San Diego lineup will hit twice.
The move: San Diego first 3 innings team total Over 1.5 (+135 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets
The angle: Don't let the final scores fool you, the early parts of these games have been tight and low-scoring.
The Over has hit in both games here, but the first five Under has also cashed in each game with Game 1 seeing just a single run in the F5 before late dramatics while Game 2 saw just two runs in the F5 before things got insane late yet again.
It's the bullpens that have been giving up runs and I think the starting pitching should keep things in check early again today.
The New York Mets tagged Aaron Nola for six runs during the summer but he also threw a complete-game shutout vs. this lineup in May. Don't read too much into one head-to-head match; Nola knows the stakes and has experience.
Sean Manaea has also been incredible down the stretch, and while he might only go five innings, that's all we need on the F5 Under 4 at +100.
The lefty is on five days' rest and put together a 0.60 WHIP since the All-Star break at home. The flat 4 on the F5 total is important here but I think a lot of the projected run total should come against the bullpen like Games 1 and 2.
The move: First 5 Under 4 (+100 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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