Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply said information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Tuesday, September 24.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 24
Skubal u4.5 hits allowed (-105)
Weathers o2.5 earned runs (+128)
Feltner u16.5 outs (-130)
Pfaadt u17.5 outs (+128)
Today’s best SP angles
Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers
The angle: Tarik Skubal is pitching the Tigers into the playoffs.
The Detroit Tigers are one game up in the Wild Card with six games remaining. Tarik Skubal has been his regular Cy-Young self, holding his opponents to four or fewer hits in six of his last eight starts.
He gets a great matchup today vs. the Rays, who he already blanked this year. Tampa is a Bottom-10 offense by batting average over the last 30 days and Skubal projects for 4.13 hits allowed today.
Skubal is also not the longest-leashed pitcher, throwing 95 or fewer pitches in five of his last nine starts. The Tigers were also off yesterday, so the bullpen is fresh. If they want Skubal for the playoffs or even on Sunday, they might take a conservative approach with him.
This has been one of my favorite props down the stretch and it's always fun to back elite arms, as there isn't always value in betting on big names. Opponents are hitting just .178 off of Skubal over the last 14 days and .217 over the last month.
The move: Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 hits allowed (-105 at BetMGM)
Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins
The angle: Ryan Weathers did not look good in his first start since June 7.
Ryan Weathers returned from a finger injury that kept him on the shelf for the majority of the summer on Wednesday. He faced the Dodgers, who tagged him for six runs and three home runs. Weathers allowed a 71% flyball rate and L.A. batters hit .500 off of his fastball. He might not be back to his regular 3.55-ERA self and is in a spot with a longer leash to give up runs today in Minnesota.
The Twins have not been the best offense lately and are on the outside looking in for the Wild Card. Despite the offensive struggles, THE BAT is projecting 2.96 earned runs allowed from Weathers today on 86 pitches. With books paying plus money to the Over 2.5 earned runs, I have to take the +128 and would buy this to even money.
Pitchers giving up a lot of damage in the first game back from the IL are always a good look in the next game with a likely higher pitch count. That's where the edge is today.
The move: Ryan Weathers Over 2.5 earned runs (+128 at bet365)
St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies
The angle: Ryan Feltner getting into the sixth inning at Coors is unlikely.
Ryan Feltner's Under 16.5 outs projects well today with Covers' projections sitting at 14.3. THE BAT is projecting just 82 pitches for the Colorado starter, who is 8-5 to the Under on this number at home this season. This Under 16.5 should close at 15.5 but I'd still take the Under 15.5 at -120 or better.
The Cardinals have been an average offense over the last month but saw him once this year, where Feltner went 16 outs in St. Louis. Feltner has an ERA nearly two points higher at home this year and with the Rockies off yesterday, Feltner has a fresh bullpen to relieve him, hopefully early.
The right-hander also only threw 43 innings last year and enters tonight at 150. There is no need to push him today in what could be his last start of the season.
The move: Ryan Feltner Under 16.5 outs (-130 at BetRivers)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The angle: Don't read too much into Brandon Pfaadt's last start.
Brandon Pfaadt threw a season-high 104 pitches in his last start and struck out 12 over seven innings. It was a great effort but an effort vs. a Brewers team that clinched the division the night before. In his nine starts before that, he posted a 7.58 ERA, which included games vs. Colorado, Miami, and Pittsburgh twice.
The 104 pitches were also 17 more pitches than his last-10 average. He is not going deep today vs. the Giants, as Covers is projecting 15.3 outs on a short leash of 84 pitches.
This is a two-unit play for me. His recent form is more what THE BAT projected from the young right-hander than his early-season numbers as his efficiency was unsustainable. Opponents are slashing .330/.378/.888 vs. Pfaadt over the last 30 days. His OPS against is up 100 points in the second half compared to the first half.
Form and a high workload in his last start are giving me some serious confidence in this plus-money Under.
The move: Brandon Pfaadt Under 17.5 outs (+128 at bet365)
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