Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply said information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Thursday, September 26.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 26
Keller u17.5 outs (-105)
Rocker u3.5 hits allowed (+140)
Musgrove u1.5 walks allowed (+140)
Today’s best SP angles
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
The angle: One more ride on fading Mitch Keller.
Mitch Keller has been an overvalued pitcher all year, especially since the All-Star break. The Pittsburgh Pirates righty has a 5.68 ERA since mid-July and has been profitable on his Under 17.5 outs, which is paying -105 today and projects for 16.3. He's averaging 88.5 pitches per start over his last 10 and is coming off a 10-out performance where he gave up season-highs of eight runs and five walks.
Milwaukee is locked into the No. 3 seed in the NL but will still be looking to carry momentum into the playoffs. Keller's Under 5.5 Ks is also a good bet with a projection of 4.9 but that market is falling quickly compared to the outs.
There is a reason books have not offered many outs markets because of the uncertainty at the end of the season. I wouldn't be surprised if Keller went 15 outs and was pulled so the team could look at some relief arms. And who knows, maybe Keller is approaching some contract milestones that the Pirates will not want to pay. That's a stretch but Keller failing to finish the sixth is not.
The move: Mitch Keller Under 17.5 outs (-105 at bet365)
Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics
The angle: Kumar Rocker won't see many pitches and has a great matchup.
The blue-chip prospect will make his third MLB start in the final game at the Oakland Coliseum. He hasn't seen more than 74 pitches and hasn't gone more than 12 outs. Expect the same leash today in an easy matchup vs. the A's, who might be more concerned about saying goodbye to the shithole that is the Coliseum — how is there no railing/fence in the dugout?
Kumar Rocker has been unhittable since coming up, allowing just five hits over his seven innings with the Texas Rangers. He got in trouble with some walks in his last start, which only increases his pitch count and helps him see fewer batters. His Under 3.5 hits allowed is a very sexy +140 at bet365 and a bet I'd play down to +115.
Oakland has been hitting .222 over the last 14 days and will be trotting out an afternoon lineup on a historic day. I love his Under 1.5 earned runs at +125, but the hits are the better play at that price. This is a rookie who had given up just 13 hits in 29+ innings across Double- and Triple-A this year and has surrendered just 18 hits over his last 37 innings of professional baseball. He has yet to give up more than three hits across his nine starts from Double-A and up.
The move: Kumar Rocker Under 3.5 hits allowed (+140 at bet365)
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The angle: Joe Musgrove is paying big plus money for something he's cashed in nine of his last 13.
Joe Musgrove has 11 walks over his last 69 innings, which works out out to a minuscule 1.43 BB/9. Somehow with that output, the San Diego Padres right-hander is paying +140 for his Under 1.5 walks allowed.
Yes, it's a matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but this is also an offense that can get you pulled quickly which can shorten the leash. Musgrove projects for just 15.2 outs and is averaging just 81 pitches per start over his last 10 games. He returned to the lineup in mid-August and has yet to throw more than 94 pitches and is 6-2 to the Under on this prop total.
It's not a two-unit play for me like Kevin Gausman was yesterday, but this is my favorite play of the day.
The move: Joe Musgrove Under 1.5 walks allowed (+140 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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