Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply said information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Friday, September 27.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 27
Crochet u5.5 strikeouts (+100)
Rodon u4.5 hits allowed (+115)
Lopez u18.5 outs recorded (-145)
Today’s best SP angles
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
The angle: Don't let the the move to push Garrett Crochet back fool you, he is only going four innings.
Garrett Crochet hasn't gone more than 12 outs in 12 straight starts. He has yet to throw 60 pitches in six straight. His strikeout total is 5.5 paying +100 to the Under and projects for 4.95 total strikeouts today vs. the Tigers.
The Chicago White Sox pushed the starter back a day to face the Detroit Tigers in a big game for the home team. Crochet has elite K% stuff, but asking him to collect half of his outs via the K is insane. Has he done it before? Yes, but it's a lot to ask.
He might not even get to 12 outs as he has failed to do that in five of his last 11 starts. It's a good matchup but everything has to go right for him to get six Ks and there isn't any tax risk at even money. I'd buy this to -125.
The move: Garrett Crochet Under 5.5 strikeouts (+100 at DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees
The angle: Carlos Rodon does not need to go much today with the playoffs on the horizon.
The New York Yankees are locked into the first-round bye in the playoffs. Carlos Rodon will get his work in today, but there is no need to push him vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates. I wouldn't be surprised if he went below his average pitch count of 97 as he hasn't thrown more than 90 in three straight.
Even if he does go long, he's in great form and I'm buying his Under 4.5 hits allowed at +115 and to even money. Since the All-Star break, his H/9 is sitting at 7.04, which puts him at 4.7 hits allowed over six innings, however, the matchup should reduce that number.
Pittsburgh ranks 29th in wRC+ over the last 14 days and ranks in the bottom 10 in AVG and BB%. They are also one of the highest K% teams over that same stretch. There is no need to push Rodon today.
The move: Carlos Rodon Under 4.5 hits allowed (+115 at DraftKings)
Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins
The angle: The Twins can't lose.
There aren't many out markets available but one of the few is Pablo Lopez and his Under 18.5 outs at -145 is a buy for me.
The Minnesota Twins are three games back with three games to go. There is no room for error. Lopez has to be perfect and if he isn't, the Twins don't have any time to fool around. That could lead to a playoff-style leash for the No.1 starter who projects for 16 outs.
He is coming off one of his worst starts the year after allowing seven runs to the Red Sox, who have been one of the worst offenses of late. I wouldn't buy 18.5 at much more than -150, but if it does move, I'd love Under 17.5 at +150 or better. Even if Minnesota is getting beat up, there is no need to push Lopez, who is having his worst statistical season since 2019.
The move: Pablo Lopez Under 18.5 outs recorded (-145 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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