Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Thursday, September 5.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 5
Snell u7.5 strikeouts (-135)
Irvin u17.5 outs (+105)
Kochanowicz o15.5 outs (-125)
Today’s best SP angles
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants
The angle: Blake Snell has piled up the Ks vs. weak opponents.
Over his last seven starts, Blake Snell has amassed 68 punchouts across 48+ innings, going Over his K total in all but one of those outings.
However, he had about as easy a schedule as a pitcher could have; he faced Miami, Seattle, Oakland, Atlanta, Washington, Cincinnati, and Colorado — some of the highest K% teams in baseball and/or just bad offenses.
Today is a different story vs. the Diamondbacks, who rank 27th in K% over the last 30 days and first in wOBA. Snell projects for 6.6 strikeouts today with a total of 7.5. There is a little juice but I'd play this -140/-145.
The move: Blake Snell Under 7.5 strikeouts (-135 at DraftKings)
Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
The angle: Jake Irvin is wearing down having pitched more than ever in his career.
Washington's Jake Irvin projects for 15.5 outs today and is paying plus money on his Under 17.5 outs. He got obliterated in his last start and has gone Under this number in five of his last seven starts, allowing at least two runs in each of those turns.
He's seen a dip in his K/9 over those summer months from, 8.0 to 6.9, and is coming off a 103-pitch outing. Washington might have realized it is pushing him late in the season, as he has 161 innings under his belt and last year he threw just 143 across AAA and MLB.>
I'd play this Under to -120 today.
The move: Jake Irvin Under 17.5 outs (+105 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers
The angle: Jack Kochanowicz is efficient and can get 18 outs but being priced differently
Jack Kochanowicz is one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball, using just 3.35 pitches per plate appearance. Guys love swinging early against the 6-foot-6 righty, and giving him ample chances to log sub-10-pitch innings — that makes his Over 15.5 outs a play for me... right up to 17.5.
He's gone 18 outs in four straight starts, and didn't even need 75 pitches in either of his last two outings. He has a long leash, as the Halos pushed his pitch count to 93 four starts ago, and his 60% groundball rate is something that can bail him out of trouble, too.
The books have struggled to price the rookie and I'm riding his Over until the wheels fall off
The move: Jack Kochanowicz Over 15.5 outs (-125 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
