Dodgers vs Braves Sunday Night Baseball Prop Bets: Freeman Matches Up Well vs Morton

Prop bet #1: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases

+145 at bet365

The Atlanta Braves trot out veteran Charlie Morton for Sunday Night Baseball. Whenever a pitcher has accumulated this much experience, I tend to give more credence to past performance against specific hitters. The bigger the sample size, the more accurate the data.

Morton's struggles against Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman stand out. The slugging lefty has racked up a 1.522 OPS in his career against Morton, going 11-for-23 with three dingers and seven RBI.

The Over on Freeman’s total bases prop of 1.5 can be had for odds as high as +140, which rates at a five-star play in our MLB player props projections and it’s easy for me to see why, so I’m buying in my MLB picks.

Freddie has obliterated righties this season, batting .301 with a 154 wRC+ and .391 wOBA. I’ll bet on him continuing to dole out damage tonight.

Prop bet #2: Michael Harris II Over 1.5 total bases

+125 at bet365

Walker Buehler has had a rough go this season, sitting with a 5.95 ERA, 5.19 xERA, and 6.09 FIP. This doesn’t project as the most difficult matchup in the world (Atlanta has a 90 wRC+ and .299 wOBA against righties in September), but there are reasons to be bearish in his chances of a quick turnaround.

Buehler has struggled away from home, allowing batters to hit .320 while posting an absurd 8.48 FIP. He’s also been brutal against left-handed batters, surrendering a .336 BA with a 1.85 WHIP.

Buehler was once an ace and baseball will be better when he’s regained the full strength of his powers. Until then, however, I’m going to fade him — especially with left-handed bats.

Michael Harris II will be leading off and although he’s having a down year, his wRC+ is 12 points higher at home. He’s been swinging the stick well, racking up 15 total bases across his last four games (3.75 average).

The books have set his total bases from at 1.5 with plus money on the Over. I’ll be a buyer for a player who ranks in the 81st percentile in xBA and is facing a starting pitcher who simply hasn’t been able to figure things out since returning to the mound.

Prop bet #3: Gavin Lux Over 1.5 Hits + Runs+ RBI

+120 at BetMGM

Morton has struggled against lefties, posting a 1.40 WHIP. The 40-year-old doesn’t do much at an above-average level anymore despite being a valuable innings eater. We’re already fading him with one left-handed LA bat, so how about another? 

Gavin Lux has gone 2-for-4 in a small sample size against the veteran pitcher. He’s a righty killer, though, racking up a 105 wRC+ against them on the year, so he’s poised to potentially exploit this matchup.

Although this is a road matchup, that suits Lux well, as the 26-year-old has a higher wRC+ (102) on the road than at home (89).

Lux has had a decent year after a disappointing start to his career, ranking in the 72nd percentile in expected batting average. He’s not a star, but he’s a solid hitter who can routinely punish righties. That means that his props can be targeted in the right matchup, and tonight's is one.

Morton’s second and third most utilized pitches are the four-seamer and the changeup, respectively. Lux has solid numbers against both with a .291 xBA against four-seamers and a .284 xBA against changeups.

Sign me up for the Lux life.