Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Tuesday, September 3.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 3
Nastrini o4.5 hits allowed (+125)
Phillips o5.5 hits allowed + o2.5 earned runs (+190)
Bibee u17.5 outs recorded (+120)
Matz u3.5 strikeouts (+132)
Today’s best SP angles
Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
The angle: Nick Nastrini will get another start and can go 95+ pitches, leading to an Over on his hits allowed market.
Nick Nastrini threw 98 pitches in his last start, which was his first since another promotion. He's a bad pitcher with a 5.24 ERA in Triple-A, and he doesn't strike batters out. The Chicago White Sox are willing to give him a long leash which should help cash that Over 4.5 hits allowed at plus money.
He's given up just 27 hits in the Majors across 32+ innings, but that number should grow as he has a 9.0 H/9 in Triple-A. The Orioles broke out of their offensive funk last night with 13 runs on 18 hits, and if Nastrini goes five or more innings, this should have a great chance of cashing.
I'd be very surprised if he came out tonight and avoided damage. I also like his Under 3.5 walks allowed at -135, as that is a massive number. THE BAT is projecting 4.56 HA on a low pitch count of just 81.
The move: Nick Nastrini Over 4.5 hits allowed (+125 at bet365)
Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays
The angle: Tyler Phillips was recalled and gets the start, but he enters in poor form and could get knocked around on the road.
Tyler Phillips allowed 17 runs on 20 hits across 11 innings over his last stint with the big club. He's only getting recalled as Taijuan Walker has been horrendous and was moved to the bullpen. Phillips wasn't sharp in his two Triple-A starts between call-ups, allowing six hits in each start, and surrendering nine total runs over 8 2/3 innings.
Philly is in a race for the No. 1 seed in the NL, but this is also the first game of the series, and I doubt it wants to burn the bullpen if Phillips continues to falter.
The RHP has good control over his MLB starts, which has me adding his Over 2.5 earned runs with the Over 5.5 hits allowed for +190. Both are +110 as singles and good plays, but the correlation is legit, and I was surprised by the multiplier I got.
For comparison, Chris Bassitt's Over 18.5 outs plus his Over 5.5 strikeouts move the odds from +155 to +160. I think it's a smart SGP.
The move: Tyler Phillips Over 5.5 hits allowed + Over 2.5 earned runs (+190 at bet365)
Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals
The angle: Tanner Bibee's recent form, plus a tight playoff race, will hurt his chances of getting deep.
Tanner Bibee is paying +120 to get fewer than 18 outs, which is something he's done in four straight starts and in six of his last seven. He has a decent 3.32 ERA since the All-Star break but has recorded 18+ outs once.
The Royals just beat him up in his last start for five runs on eight hits, including three long balls. The Cleveland Guardians opened up a 3.5-game lead in the AL Central, but their recent run has them just one game back of the best record in the AL.
With Gavin Williams getting deep yesterday, the visitors' bullpen is rested and needs to get some work, as two arms have not pitched in a week, and other high-leverage pitchers are available. Bibee projects for 89 pitches and 16.6 outs, per THE BAT.
The Royals offense has taken a hit with the loss of Vinnie Pasquantino, but this is still one of the best home offenses in baseball that just beat up Bibee five days ago.
The move: Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 outs recorded (+120 at bet365)
St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers
The angle: Struggling Steven Matz returns from the 60-day IL and might be headed back to a bullpen role.
Steven Matz has built up to 85 pitches after some minor-league rehab starts where he managed just 17 Ks over 21 innings and a 3.43 ERA. However, with the state of the St. Louis rotation and Lance Lynn likely to come back, there's no room for Matz in the five-man group. Let's also not forget his 6.18 ERA before he hit the IL.
Matz has been a giant disappointment for the Cards and there's a chance he isn't treated like a starter today. The roster has expanded, and St. Louis will be happy to evaluate talent while out of any playoff races.
THE BAT is projecting 4.32 Ks for Matz — which is driving up the market — but I'm happy to hit the Under 3.5 punchouts at great plus money because of the uncertainty with his role today.
This market will more than likely move to 4.5 because of THE BAT's influence on it, but I just want the plus-money Under 3.5 here. I'd buy this to +120.
The move: Steven Matz Under 3.5 strikeouts (+132 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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