The Toronto Blue Jays (9-5, 1st in the AL East) sit atop the American League and struck first last night after some ninth-inning heroics from Matt Chapman.
The Houston Astros (6-7, 4th in the AL West) are not off to the start they hoped for, and are now losers of three straight and six of their last eight. Can the Astros turn it around or will the Blue Jays keep the ball rolling and take game two of the three-game series?
Continue reading for free MLB picks and predictions for the Blue Jays vs. Astros matchup on Saturday, April 23rd.
Blue Jays vs Astros odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Blue Jays opened as -125 favorites and can be found as low as -115 at BetMGM. The total opened at 8.5 and has stayed at that number.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Astros predictions
Picks made on 4/23/2022 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Blue Jays vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Saturday, April 23, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet
Blue Jays vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Alek Manoah (2-0, 1.50 ERA): The 24-year-old emerging arm is living up to the hype so far, with two quality starts in 2022 following his rookie campaign last year, in which he managed a 3.22 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 111.1 innings pitched.
Jose Urquidy (1-1, 7.00 ERA): Urquidy did not have the same level of hype as Manoah did, but has pitched to a more than solid 3.71 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his four-year career thus far. Urquidy struggled in his last start, however, allowing eight hits and six earned runs in four innings against Seattle.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Blue Jays: George Springer OF (Questionable), Teoscar Hernandez OF (Out), Nate Pearson RP (Out).
Astros: Jose Altuve 2B (Out), Ryan Pressly RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Houston has gone 8-5 to the Under and Toronto has gone 10-4. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Astros
Blue Jays vs Astros picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
This may finally be the year that the Toronto Blue Jays put it together. Vladamir Guerrero Jr is following up his 2021 All-Star campaign with a blistering start, with a .320 batting average, 1.046 OPS, 5 home runs, and 11 RBIs. Veteran additions like George Springer last year and Matt Chapman this year (.271 BA, .340 OBP) have helped round out the lineup and give it threats up and down the order.
There have been similar additions on the mound, between the addition of Jose Berrios (3.58 ERA in 2021) at the trade deadline last year, the newly acquired 2021 All-Star Kevin Gausman (2.89 ERA, 22 Ks), or the Yusei Kikuchi reclamation experiment (3.24 ERA).
Those additions have helped round out a rotation seemingly anchored by the home-grown Alek Manoah, who wowed even his biggest hype generators last year by pitching to a 3.22 ERA and 127 strikeouts in just 111 innings pitched in his rookie season as a 23-year-old. Manoah is off to a solid start in 2022 as well, notching two quality starts already with two six-inning outings with just two earned runs combined across the two.
Manoah will take the mound on Saturday afternoon against an unfamiliar foe, having yet to face the Astros in his career. Largely known for their potent lineup of hitters, the Astros can pose a threat from anywhere in their lineup. The latest call-up from their renowned farm system is shortstop Jeremy Pena, who has been inserted into the leadoff spot following a blistering start (.286 BA, .354 OBP, 8 R).
Pena is flanked by the usual names like Alex Bregman (.273 BA, 9 RBI), Michael Brantley (.265 BA), Yordan Alvarez (3 HRs in eight games), and last year's call-up, Chas McCormick, who is batting a team-leading .313. Some names are notably missing from that list, with Kyle Tucker (.087 BA), Yuli Gurriel (.184), and Jose Altuve (.167) all having slow starts to 2022, and Altuve currently on the 10-day injured list.
Taking the mound for the Astros will be Jose Urquidy, who opened the season with just one earned run against the Angels in five innings but then was knocked around for six earned runs in four innings against Seattle. Urquidy has been in the league for four years now and profiles as a high-end middle-of-the-rotation arm, with a career 12-6 record and 3.71 ERA.
Saturday afternoon's matchup provides a good buy-low spot for the Astros, who are desperately looking for a win after dropping three straight and six of their last eight. Urquidy is certainly a much better arm than his last outing would suggest, and while Manoah is potentially one of the league's future studs, he can't pitch to his current marks for an entire season.
Prediction: Houston ML (+100 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Both teams have played friendly to the Under so far in 2022, with Houston going 8-5 and Toronto going an even better 10-4. Toronto also notably played to the Under last year as well, going 84-69-9 (54.9%).
And to be quite frank, it might be best to bet Unders until league-wide hitting improves. 2022 thus far has marked an all-time low for batting average as the league continues to face the challenge of pitchers improving at a faster pace than hitters can keep up with.
There are currently FIFTY SIX batters hitting at or below .200.
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) April 22, 2022
The league batting average as a whole is .231.
That’s the lowest league batting average in the history of baseball dating back to 1871.
And if the proliferation of the defensive shift is the culprit, then this matchup on Saturday is one to lean towards the Under for that reason. Toronto shifts on a whopping 76.8% of all plate appearances, which not only leads the league but is also 14.2% higher than the second-highest mark. The Astros shift on 47.6% of plate appearances, which is still good for the sixth-highest in the league.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (-100 at BetRivers)
Best bet
It understandably takes one simple glance at Saturday's game two matchup between the Blue Jays and Astros to want to back the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are the best team in the American League and are winners of three straight, including last night's clutch win in the ninth.
The Astros have lost three straight and six of their last eight, and have cold and untimely bats that are scoring the eighth-fewest runs per game in the league. Urquidy also was just beaten around by an inferior Mariners matchup, so why should he fare any better against the Blue Jays?
But in baseball, things tend to hammer themselves into more normalized results. The chances the Blue Jays and Alek Manoah can continue at this pace while the Astros and Jose Urquidy continue to struggle as they have are so infinitely small. That's not to say it can't happen on Saturday, but over the course of the season, it should be expected for these performances to come back to earth in both directions.
Expect the Astros to even up the series and give themselves the chance to win it going into tomorrow.
Pick: Houston ML (+100 at DraftKings)
