After dropping a series to the Philadelphia Phillies, the Toronto Blue Jays go from one tough National League East opponent to another as they hit the road to open a series with the Atlanta Braves.
While the Blue Jays will be underdogs in this matchup, my Blue Jays vs Braves predictions will focus on their ability to keep this one close as we have a pitcher’s duel on our hands.
Join me as I break down my favorite MLB picks for September 6.
Blue Jays vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Under 4.5 First Five Innings (-139 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays fought hard against the National League East-leading Philadelphia Phillies this week, but it wasn’t good enough as they dropped both games in the mini two-game set.
While the bullpen is still a mess and the wins may not be there, there’s no doubt this Blue Jays team has been more enjoyable to watch since the trade deadline. Someone else who is playing better is tonight’s starter, Kevin Gausman.
It’s been a bit of a roller-coaster season for Gausman, who has certainly regressed a bit after two very strong years in Toronto. But the right-hander has looked a little more like that guy of late.
Gausman is pitching to a 2.20 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .179 batting average over his last five starts and while a matchup against the Atlanta Braves isn’t easy, the Braves aren’t exactly the juggernaut they were last season.
Injuries have played a part in that, but they have also regressed a little. Right-handers in particular have been a problem. Atlanta enters this game ranking 20th in batting average, 18th in OPS, and 20th in wRC+ vs. righties this season.
Luckily, for the Braves, they hand the ball to Max Fried for this interleague matchup. Fried has also been a little up-and-down this season and is sporting a solid, if unspectacular, 3.79 expected ERA. He’s been solid recently with a 3.33 ERA and a .212 opponent batting average over his last three starts.
But he’s also the type of pitcher that can give this young Blue Jays lineup problems. Fried uses a large mix of pitches to keep hitters off balance and is one of the better pitchers in the league in creating soft contact. Plus, he’s a southpaw.
Toronto ranks 26th in batting average, 25th in OPS, and 23rd in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitching this season.
I’m betting pitching is the story early on in this one and taking the five-inning Under as my best bet.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+175 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has picked up in September right where he left off in August. The Blue Jays’ star first baseman already has five knocks in just two games so far this month.
Vladdy enters this matchup now hitting .328 with a .963 OPS, 28 home runs, and 92 RBI, and while the Jays as a team have had their struggles vs. southpaws, the same can’t be said for their slugger.
Guerrero has a .337 batting average with a 1.079 OPS when facing left-handed pitching this season. He has also driven in at least one run in six of his 10 games and I like the odds to back him to do it again tonight.
The price for Guerrero to go Over 0.5 RBI is too high not to take, in fact, it’s a five-star play per our Covers Prop Projections at these odds.
Ontario sports bettors: Play the Jays your way with PROLINE+
Ontario-owned and operated, PROLINE+ has a robust market offering at its disposal and reinvests 100% of its profits back into the province — join today!
Blue Jays vs Braves odds
Blue Jays vs Braves live odds
Blue Jays vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +150 | Atlanta -180
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 -140 | Atlanta -1.5 +120
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Blue Jays vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as +150 road underdogs but early bettors have seen a little value in them with the line moving to the +140 range.
- That's likely due to the fact this pitching matchup is closer than the line suggests.
- The total hit the board at 7.5 and has hit an even 8.0, but 7.5s have started to pop back up as of Friday afternoon.
- I like the first five-inning Under in this matchup, but a Blue Jays bullpen that has the third-worst ERA in baseball has me avoiding the full-game Under.
Blue Jays vs Braves trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games for +3.90 Units and a 60% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Braves.
Blue Jays vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Friday, 9-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Southeast |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (12-10, 4.07 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (8-8, 3.52 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Braves latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
