Blue Jays vs Rays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Both Offenses Start Out Slow in Tropicana

Toronto Blue Jays fans must feel like they are in a pit of despair following yet another series loss to an American League East foe. The latest tragedy saw them getting swept over the weekend at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. 

Now, the Jays have lost four in a row overall and have just one win in their last 11 games against AL East opponents. And guess what? They now have the toughest of the bunch on tap this week as the Tampa Bay Rays play host.

Toronto hopes it can stop its skid by handing the ball to arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball, Chris Bassitt. The veteran has thrown 27 consecutive scoreless innings, but will that be enough against Tampa and its MLB-best 34-14 record?

I break down the MLB odds and bring you my MLB picks for the Blue Jays vs. Rays.

Blue Jays vs Rays odds

Blue Jays vs Rays predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays are in a dark place at the moment. They have lost four games in a row and are a shockingly bad 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. American League East opponents. That awful record is made even worse by the fact that the AL East is far and away the most competitive division in baseball — meaning every division game matters that much more.

But if there is anyone who can help break Toronto out of this slump it’s starter Chris Bassitt. The right hander is arguably the hottest starter in baseball and has thrown 27 consecutive scoreless innings.

It’s been an incredible turnaround for Bassitt who got shelled by the St. Louis Cardinals in his Blue Jays’ debut. He surrendered nine runs on 10 hits in just 3 1/3 innings of work in that game but has allowed just 10 earned runs on 24 hits in his next eight starts combined. Bassitt is pitching to a 1.71 ERA and limiting opponents to a .136 batting average over that stretch.

The Tampa Bay Rays pose an incredibly tough task as they lead the MLB in many offensive categories, but Bassitt has proven he can handle good lineups, with 16 of those 27 scoreless innings coming against two of the better lineups in baseball in the Atlanta Braves and the New York Yankees.

Meanwhile, the multitude of injuries to the Rays' starting rotation means this is a bullpen day for the Rays. While the Tampa Bay relievers aren’t striking out a ton of batters, they have still been effective, ranking 15th in ERA (3.91), seventh in WHIP, and fourth in opponent batting average.

The Rays’ relievers will be helped out by the fact that the Blue Jays' bats have generally gone silent of late. Toronto is plating just 3.1 runs per game over the last seven games and has scored three or fewer five times over that stretch. The Jays have also struggled to cash in runs when they have had scoring opportunities, ranking 24th (.235) in batting average with runners in scoring position this season.

Basically, it feels like Toronto isn't getting much out of anyone not named Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. these days (no offense Danny Jansen). Even Matt Chapman has cooled off considerably after a red-hot April. 

The Blue Jays have a history of struggling in the Trop (18-37 in the last 55 games played there) and with the way they are swinging the bats at the moment, this doesn’t exactly look like a breakout spot. I’m betting pitching is the story early in this one and taking the Under on the five-inning total.

My best bet: First five innings Under 4.5 (+104 at SIA)

Blue Jays vs Rays moneyline analysis

Sportsbooks have both the Blue Jays and Rays in the -110 range for tonight’s matchup, and while what Bassitt has been able to accomplish has been impressive (it’s the second-longest scoreless-innings streak in Blue Jays history), that hot streak may be getting overvalued by sportsbooks a little bit. 

Even though I expect Bassitt to be effective here tonight, that doesn't mean I love this price with Toronto. Oddsmakers basically have this game as a coin toss because Bassitt is pitching so well and for no other reason. 

It overlooks the fact that the Rays are a ridiculous 21-4 at home this season, and if there is any team that can navigate pitching injuries, it’s Kevin Cash and Tampa. It also overlooks that the Jays are in a slump at the dish lately, where they rank 22nd in OPS and wRC+ over the last seven games. 

On top of that, the Rays’ bullpen comes into this series much more rested with only one of their top five relievers pitching in Sunday’s game against the Brewers, while Toronto has had to use a few more pitchers with each of its last two games going to extra innings.

The Jays are in a dark place right now. They can’t beat a division opponent for the life of them, and the Trop is a place where they've struggled. I would lean toward the home team at this price.

Blue Jays vs Rays Over/Under analysis

When it comes to the full game total, the number hit the board at 8.5 and has crept up to 9.0 as of Monday afternoon. I find this surprising because I think that means there is some expectation that the Blue Jays will snap out of their funk in this matchup. I don’t see it. Breaking out of a funk against a team that is 21-4 at home just doesn't make sense to me. I’m on the five-inning Under and I believe there is value with the Under on the full-game total as well.

Blue Jays vs Rays game info

Starting pitchers

Chris Bassitt (5-2, 3.05 ERA): Not only is the scoreless inning streak impressive, he has the stuff to help cool off the Rays. Tampa Bay leads MLB in home runs per nine innings and Bassitt has only surrendered two over his last eight starts.

Trevor Kelley (0-1, 7.50 ERA): Kelley is a 30-year-old journeyman reliever with a funky sidearm delivery. He's only thrown six innings this season and allowed five earned runs. Rays' manager Kevin Cash will hope to get two innings out of him tonight.

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Trend to know

The Under is 12-4-1 in the last 17 games played between these two teams in Tampa Bay. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rays

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