The Toronto Blue Jays must be happy to get away from the Baltimore Orioles after losing yet another series to the American League East leaders. The Jays now travel to Fenway Park to open a three-game weekend set vs. the Boston Red Sox who they are....*check notes*...0-7 against this season.
The Blue Jays hand the ball to (oh, good lord), Alek Manoah. The embattled right-hander is still trying to figure things out after getting sent down to the minors earlier in the season. Figuring it out against this Red Sox lineup isn’t a great strategy and it’s not a surprise that the Jays are sizeable road underdogs in this matchup.
Can Toronto finally get a win against Boston, or will its woes vs. AL East foes continue? I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in my MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions
This is an incredibly important series for both teams. Despite their struggles against division opponents, the Toronto Blue Jays hold a two-game lead over the Red Sox for the final wild card spot in the America League, and handing the ball to Alek Manoah tonight doesn’t really bode well for expanding that lead.
Manoah still doesn’t look right. The big right-hander’s first half of the season was such a disaster that the team resorted to sending him down to the Florida Complex League to work on his mechanics and get in better shape. When he got called back up, he was able to manage a solid start against the Detroit Tigers. But... that’s the Tigers we're talking about.
During the last three starts, his old problems have returned. Manoah has surrendered eight runs on 10 hits and 12 walks in 12 2/3 innings over his last three starts. That works out to an ugly 5.68 ERA and a 6.98 FIP.
Tonight, it won’t get any easier as he goes against a tough Boston Red Sox lineup that has been one of the toughest on right-handed pitchers this season. Boston ranks third in batting average, sixth in OPS, and 11th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season.
Boston counters Manoah with left-hander James Paxton. The Big Maple has certainly given the Red Sox rotation a big boost since returning from injury in May. Paxton is pitching to an impressive 3.19 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .214 expected batting average and a .352 expected slugging percentage.
Now he goes against a Toronto lineup that is missing its best hitter in Bo Bichette and certainly appears to be pressing. Their troubles getting those clutch hits have been apparent, as the Blue Jays rank 28th in OPS with runners in scoring position. On top of that, southpaws have given them more problems this season. Toronto is just 17th in OPS and 15th in wRC+ vs. lefties.
Until Manoah shows he can pitch well consistently at the big league level, it’s hard to even have faith backing him as an underdog. I like the Red Sox to jump on Manoah early and hold onto a lead through five innings.
My best bet: Red Sox -0.5 first five innings (-129 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox same-game parlay
Red Sox -0.5 RL
Manoah u4.5 Ks
Manoah o2.5 walks
Sorry Blue Jays fans, but we’re picking on Alek Manoah in today’s same-game parlay.
Starting off with our best bet, we’re adding Manoah to go Under his strikeout total which is sitting at 4.5. While Manoah has recorded six strikeouts in each of his last two starts, that was against two of the highest strikeout-rate teams in baseball. The Red Sox have the sixth-lowest K% when facing right-handed pitchers this season.
I know it feels like piling on, but we’re finishing this SGP off by taking the Over on 2.5 walks issued for Manoah. The Jays right-hander ranks in the Bottom 2% in baseball when it comes to BB% and has handed out three or more free passes in 12 of his 17 starts.
A bad night for Manoah means a good night with a +475 payout for us.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Blue Jays vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as about +130 road dogs and the Manoah fade is underway for the general public, as they are now sitting in the +140 range as of Friday afternoon.
As I broke down below, I don’t believe this is a good matchup for Manoah and the Jays. The Red Sox have the better starter and their lineup is producing at a more efficient rate at this point. I would lean toward the home team on the full-game moneyline as well. I wouldn’t consider the Jays until they get near the +150 range.
The total for this matchup is maybe even more interesting. It hit the board at an even 10.0 and has even been bet up to 10.5. This number just looks way too high to me.
As noted, the Jays struggle vs. lefties and Paxton dominated them when they last met back on June 30, shutting them out over 7 2/3 innings on just three hits while striking out seven. And while Manoah has struggled, the Blue Jays have an elite bullpen that will pick up the pieces if/when things fall apart for their embattled started. I have a play on the Under 10.5 as well.
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Trend to know
The Blue Jays have only hit the first five innings moneyline in 28 of their last 71 games for -13.05 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, August 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NESN |
Starting pitchers
Alek Manoah (2-8, 5.87 ERA): One of the things that got Manoah sent down to the minors was the loss of his command. Unfortunately, that still hasn't changed. The right-hander has surrendered 12 walks in his last 12 2/3 innings pitched.
James Paxton (6-2, 3.34 ERA): Paxton has been exactly what this Red Sox's rotation has needed. The left-hander has limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts this season.
