It's Game 2 of the AL Wild Card in Minneapolis when the Toronto Blue Jays do battle once again with the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins handled the Jays yesterday, and Toronto will enter this one fighting for its season and World Series odds hanging on for dear life. It was straightforward for Minnesota yesterday, as straightforward as it gets in the postseason anyway. MLB odds have Minny favored to send the Jays packing, with Jose Berrios being tasked with bringing this series back to Toronto.
Berrios should give his team a good effort, but our MLB picks for this Blue Jays vs. Twins matchup expect a certain hitter on the home side to get to the Toronto hurler. Find out more below and be sure to also check out Covers' MLB playoff predictions!
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Minnesota TwinsBlue Jays vs Twins predictions
"It was a blessing to play today: That atmosphere was electric," Twins SS Royce Lewis said simply yesterday.
He was probably lost for more words than that. After all, his play single-handedly ended Minnesota's 18-game postseason losing streak. He produced all three runs for Minnesota yesterday: A two-run home run in the first inning and an RBI in the third. It was a continuation of what's been a great period of baseball, and I'm backing him to continue it today.
I'm grabbing Lewis to go Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI. Byron Buxton's knee injury gave Lewis a chance to play, and he made the most of it with seven combined runs, hits, and RBI in Game 1. However, even before yesterday, Lewis regularly eclipsed this number when he saw the field. He has a 60% hit rate on this prop in his last five games and a 60% hit rate in his previous 10.
Many dynamics make this attractive. My projections priced it at -167 — which is one of the significant parts of its attractiveness — but there are other elements.
One of those is that there is simply a high likelihood that Lewis can get on base more than once. He'll see a good amount of breaking pitches today from Jose Berrios. They make up over 60% of his arsenal, and leading that arsenal is his sinker — music to Lewis's ears.
He's second in batting average on the Minnesota Twins roster against the sinker, second in slugging percentage, and first in hard-hit rate. In other words, Lewis is one of the best players on this roster at hitting the pitch that his opponent will deliver the most. With that in mind, it's difficult to imagine him not getting on base at least once... which is all we may need.
The second part of this is the RBI angle. It can be challenging to project RBI sometimes since other variables are at play other than the individual. However, some trends are working in our favor. The one I like the most is that Lewis has collected multiple RBI three straight times against the Toronto Blue Jays. Take Lewis to go Over this number in Game 2.
My best bet: Royce Lewis Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-125 at SIA)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Blue Jays vs Twins same-game parlay
Lewis Over 1.5 TB
Kiermaier 1+ hit
No run in the first inning
Sports Interaction doesn't allow the hits + runs + RBI prop to be used in a same-game parlay. Instead, I'm using Lewis to go Over 1.5 bases as it's a suitable substitute given the reasons I've listed above.
The second part of my parlay focuses on Kevin Kiermaier. His price seems cheap and he'll see a ton of fastballs today — a pitch he has the highest batting average against on the Jays roster.
Lastly, I'm capping things off with a scoreless first inning. I'm backing the narratives here. Sonny Gray has had an incredible season and has given up just one combined earned run all season to the Jays. As for Berrios, I'll trust him to come up big when his team needs him most — at least early.
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Blue Jays vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
From a side perspective, I have little edge to bet here.
My projections align closely with the odds that we've been given. I need -122 or better to back the Twins and around +125 to support the Jays. It seems unlikely that either of those numbers will come to fruition.
Grey has had great success against this Toronto team this season, and I don't know why that would change in this spot. Regarding this matchup, he should have some decent success inducing the ground ball, which has been paramount to his success. Conversely, I'm not ready to say Berrios will deliver the dominant performance he needs.
He's been good this season, but they'll need him to be great here. Can he do that with so many Twins players having solid success against the breaking pitches? Maybe, but it's not something I want to bet on. As for the total, I placed a half unit on the Under 8.
As of publication, FanDuel and DraftKings were the two books still hanging 8s against a market that mainly had moved to 7.5. I projected a total of 7.5, so there is a slight edge. As I've detailed above, a big part of this is what we should get from Gray on the mound. However, the second aspect is that Berrios struggles will be quickly addressed. This is a win-or-go-home situation for Toronto, so its starting pitching will have a swift hook.
Trend to know
Royce Lewis has gone Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in three of his last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Twins
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Blue Jays vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios (11-12, 3.65 ERA): I think the best way to sum up Berrios' year in a word would have been "improvement". Last season brought up some alarm bells as Berrios finished the year with an ERA over five and an expected ERA at the bottom of the league. Berrios has bounced back in a big way, limiting the hard-hit ball, which is the chief of his success. He remains relatively hittable, though, and a whiff rate slightly below the league average indicates that.
Sonny Gray (8-8, 2.79 ERA): Gray has been excellent this season. He just posted the second-best ERA of his career — a feat he accomplished in his rookie season all the way back in 2015. Gray's strength has been inducing the ground ball, and he sits in the Top 20% of the league in that category. Gray has faced this Toronto team twice this season and dominated them in each start, allowing one total earned run combined. He enters this matchup with one of the lowest run values of qualified starting pitchers in baseball.
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