Braves vs Cardinals Predictions, Picks, Odds: Dodging Punchouts

The Atlanta Braves and the St. Louis Cardinals will both try to build on successful starts to the 2023 season when they meet at Busch Stadium for the first of a three-game series on Monday night.

Both teams are coming off an impressive opening series offensively. The Cardinals (2-1) were particularly prolific, scoring 22 runs over three games against the Toronto Blue Jays, while the Braves (2-1) scored 15 against the Washington Nationals.

St. Louis will be starting Jake Woodford, a converted reliever who's only occasionally worked as a starter. We’ll talk about what that means for bettors in our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Cardinals on April 3.

Braves vs Cardinals odds

Braves vs Cardinals predictions

Jake Woodford played an important role for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2022, making 27 appearances and becoming a bullpen regular down the stretch. He finished the year 4-0 with a 2.23 ERA while primarily working as a reliever, making just one start.

That’s typical of how the 26-year-old has been utilized throughout his career. Over three years, Woodford has made 55 appearances out of the bullpen and only 10 starts, most of which came in 2021.

Like most swingmen, Woodford doesn’t typically go long when he works as a starter. He's never made it out of the sixth inning in any of his 10 career starts, going 5 1/3 innings in his only 2022 start. The Cardinals didn’t exactly stretch Woodford out during spring training this year either, as he logged just 17 2/3 innings over five appearances.

None of this is a problem for St. Louis if Woodford continues to be as highly effective as he was in 2022. If they get a full five innings from him and are still solidly in the game, it will be mission accomplished as the Cardinals try to survive without Adam Wainwright, who's recovering from a groin muscle strain.

However, that does mean Woodford likely won’t get much time to compile stats. That's especially true for strikeouts, even against an Atlanta lineup that was among the most free-swinging clubs in the majors in 2022.

Woodford has never been much of a strikeout pitcher. He’s averaging just 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings over his career. That number dropped precipitously in 2022, when he averaged only one strikeout every two innings. Instead of overpowering batters, Woodford found success while keeping the ball in the park and giving up just one home run in 48 1/3 innings.

As Woodford leaned more into his approach of generating weak contact, he logged even fewer appearances with multiple strikeouts. Woodford only struck one batter during his single starting appearance in 2022, despite pitching into the sixth inning.

While we’re too early in the season to draw any real conclusions, the Atlanta Braves seem to be making more contact in 2023 as well. Atlanta struck out just 21 times over its first three games, among the lowest totals in the majors during the first weekend of the year.

It’s hard to imagine Woodford generating enough swings and misses to threaten his strikeout prop of 3.5. There’s still plenty of value on the Under, even with a relatively thin return on this bet, as a four-strikeout performance from Woodford would be a stunning result.

My best bet: Jake Woodford Under 3.5 strikeouts (-164 at FanDuel)

Braves vs Cardinals moneyline analysis

Atlanta opened as a -125 road favorite. The line has been remaining relatively stable, though some sites are moving slightly toward the Braves, who are receiving a number as short as -130. Bettors can find up to +110 on St. Louis, though +105 is a more typical line.

Both teams come into this game with a 2-1 record, though the Cardinals really shined against the Blue Jays. Atlanta is coming off a 101-61 record in 2022, while St. Louis won the NL Central after going 93-69.

The Braves are likely favored here because of the pitching matchup. While Woodford could give the Cardinals a few good innings, the Braves are handing the ball to veteran Charlie Morton. The 39-year-old struggled a bit in 2022, going 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA. After some midseason success, Morton pitched to a 5.40 ERA in September and October.

Morton didn’t look sharp during spring training while logging a 6.00 ERA over 12 innings and allowing four home runs. While we can’t put too much stock into those preseason results, it wasn't a promising spring for an aging pitcher who wasn’t great last year. I’m leaning toward the Cardinals.

Braves vs Cardinals Over/Under analysis

The total opened at a flat eight runs. As of noon on Monday, most sites have pushed the Over/Under to 8.5, though you can still find some books without the hook if you’re interested in getting a lower number.

Both teams are capable of scoring runs. The Cardinals slugged six home runs and averaged seven runs per game against the Blue Jays. St. Louis leads the majors with a .373 batting average and is second in the league with a 1.017 OPS. Those numbers probably wouldn’t be sustainable for a single player, let alone a full team, but this is a club loaded with offensive talent.

Perhaps it's better to look at larger samples. The Braves averaged 4.87 runs per game in 2022, while St. Louis came in at 4.77 runs. These were two of the top six MLB offenses in 2022, and they project to be among the best run-producing teams in 2023 too.

With a pitching matchup that doesn’t look overly impressive, it’s easy to see why the total has been set relatively high. I’m still leaning toward the Over, even with the number at 8.5, as there’s plenty of potential for this game to turn into a slugfest.

Braves vs Cardinals game info

Braves vs Cardinals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Charlie Morton (0-0, 0.00 ERA): One of the more dependable pitchers of the past decade, Morton only really earned his reputation as a big game pitcher in 2017, when he pitched two excellent games for the Houston Astros in the World Series. While he has come up big in the playoffs for the Tampa Bay Rays and the Atlanta Braves in recent years, his regular-season numbers have been declining. There’s little chance of him rebounding now at age 39.

Jake Woodford (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Woodford is entering his fourth MLB season while still looking to define his role with the Cardinals. St. Louis has used Woodford primarily out of the bullpen, but the team will occasionally start him, as it's doing on Monday. Woodford doesn’t strike out many batters, but he used his sinker to generate weak contact fairly consistently in 2022.

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Woodford struck out three or fewer batters in each of his 27 appearances last season. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Cardinals

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