It’s a quiet night in baseball with just four games on the docket, and our top MLB player props have you covered for the action.
Find out why my MLB picks are betting against right-hander Bryce Miller and shifting focus to the starting pitchers in tonight's matchup against Arizona.
MLB props for September 23
- Bryce Miller Under 17.5 outs recorded (+100 at Pinnacle)
- Hayden Birdsong Under 4.5 strikeouts (-114 at Caesars)
- Eduardo Rodriguez Over 16.5 outs recorded (-115 at BetMGM)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Bryce Miller Under 17.5 outs recorded
Although the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park has been kind to Seattle Mariners righty Bryce Miller this season (1.96 ERA and 3.16 xFIP at home), the highway hasn’t been as smooth with respective 4.44 and 4.67 marks.
Not only does the 26-year-old righty land in a nightmare matchup Monday, but he’s also coming off a career-high 106 pitches last time out against the Yankees.
The Houston Astros rank eighth in wOBA (.320) and sixth in on-base percentage (.321) against righties for the campaign, and the Astros have also been mashing down the stretch with .333 and .342 marks in September.
Prop bet #2: Hayden Birdsong Under 4.5 strikeouts
The Arizona Diamondbacks have the fifth-lowest strikeout percentage (20.1%) against right-handed pitchers this season while teeing off with the second-highest wOBA (.335). Arizona has also paced the majors in wOBA (.364) and ISO (.215) since the All-Star break, along with an even lower 19.5 K%.
It’s a tough draw for San Francisco Giants rookie Hayden Birdsong, and his strikeout numbers are deceiving.
He fanned 20 batters across back-to-back starts against the strikeout-happy Colorado Rockies in late July, and his 6.40 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and 5.05 xFIP across his eight starts since are eyesores. Birdsong has also racked up just 11 strikeouts through 13 2/3 innings in his latest three trips to the hill.
Prop bet #3: Eduardo Rodriguez Over 16.5 outs recorded
Diamondbacks veteran Eduardo Rodriguez is eyeing statistical correction considering his .323 BABIP and 67.9% strand rate, and his 4.30 xFIP is also well below his 5.09 ERA. For comparison, he posted a .274 BABIP and 75.9% strand rate across 152 2/3 innings last season.
Rodriguez has also been better in his past two outings with four earned runs allowed across 11 1/3 innings. The southpaw is fully stretched out and has thrown just 40 2/3 innings this season after missing the majority of the year with a shoulder injury.
Of course, the Giants are a real draw, too. They’re limping to the finish line with a miserable .286 wOBA and .272 on-base percentage in September.
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Today’s MLB games
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