One might be the loneliest number, but it’s been the magic number for the Philadelphia Phillies for three straight days.
That ends tonight.
Philadelphia is set to host the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park, and my Cubs vs. Phillies predictions are calling for the home team to clinch the NL East with a convincing win.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Monday, September 23.
Cubs vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Phillies -1.5 (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies can clinch the NL East with a win, and go-to starter Aaron Nola is coming off a tidy seven-inning showing. Nola held the postseason-bound Milwaukee Brewers to a single run on three hits and a walk while striking out seven, and he’ll face a Chicago Cubs lineup with nothing on the line tonight.
Chicago can play the spoiler, but I’m confident in Nola holding the Cubbies in check while the Philly lineup puts runs on the board against a weak bullpen.
The Cubs are utilizing reliever Nate Pearson (4.71 ERA and 3.77 xFIP) as an opener, and will then turn the ball over to the bullpen for the remainder of the night. Philadelphia is capable against right- and left-handed pitchers, boasting respective .316 and .343 wOBAs for the campaign. The Phillies also enter Monday with a sixth-ranked .327 overall mark in September.
Nola is a rare hurler who is exactly who his statistics say he is. The right-hander sports a near-matching 3.54 ERA and 3.53 xFIP, while his .283 BABIP is also nearly identical to his .285 and .289 marks over the prior two seasons.
The veteran hurler has also been better at home over the past three years, with a 3.38 ERA and 3.19 xFIP compared to 4.08 and 3.40 highway marks.
All the while, Philadelphia maintains both an excellent and rested relief staff. Only Matt Strahm pitched Sunday, and the Phillies rank fifth with a 3.79 bullpen xFIP for the season.
Cubs vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies -1.5
Aaron Nola to record the win
Aaron Nola Under 6.5 strikeouts
The Cubs have a middling 22.9 K% against right-handed pitchers for the campaign, and they sport an overall 21.9% mark in September. It isn’t a plus-matchup for punchouts for Nola, and he’s fanned six or fewer in nine of his past 12 starts for solid – but unspectacular – strikeout numbers: 8.78 K/9 and 22.6 K%.
As discussed, the Philadelphia lineup packs plenty of punch, so I’m anticipating Nola pitching into the sixth inning with a lead — and the Phillies bullpen holding it for the remainder.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Phillies odds
Cubs vs Phillies live odds
Cubs vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +145 | Philadelphia -175
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-155) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Cubs vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This moneyline is interesting because there hasn’t been a huge shift in the numbers at Pinnacle, but bet365 has seen a sizable move to the Philadelphia side.
- The Phillies opened as a -170 favorite at bet365, and they’re trading at -190 as of Monday afternoon.
- Both shops have taken action on the Over, with Pinnacle moving from an opening -106/-106 split to -111/-102. There’s been a similar five-cent move to the Over at bet365.
Cubs vs Phillies trend
Philadelphia has covered the F5 run line in 41 of their last 67 games at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Phillies.
Cubs vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Monday, 9-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, NBCSP |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (5-5, 3.03 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (12-8, 3.54 ERA) |
Cubs vs Phillies latest injuries
Cubs vs Phillies weather
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