It’ll take a miracle for the Boston Red Sox to creep into the playoffs, and it'll be much tougher after tonight's matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Though Toronto is coming off a weekend sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays, my Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions lean towards the home team playing spoiler.
Read more in our MLB picks for Monday, September 23.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays moneyline (+118 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays are set to play their final six games of the season at Rogers Centre, with the chance to end an instantly forgettable year on a high note.
The past year has been tough on the Blue Jays, but they’ve won four of their last five home games, and I’m picking the hosts to provide just enough run support for Chris Bassitt tonight. They’ve also had the recent edge over the Boston Red Sox, boasting a 4-2 mark over the last six meetings.
Despite coming up empty against the Rays at the weekend, Toronto out-hit Tampa Bay in that series, and the hosts have a dialed-in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. raking at the plate. The postseason train left the station weeks ago for the Blue Jays, but motivation remains high with the ongoing audition for the 2025 roster.
Then there’s Chris Bassitt, who’s posted a 3.25 ERA in his past five starts and has pitched well against the Red Sox (2.21 career ERA). The Red Sox piled up 17 runs across yesterday’s double-header but had scored three runs or fewer in their five previous outings — and I’m expecting Bassitt to limit the baserunners tonight.
While fatigue is rarely a major swing factor in baseball, it’s worth remembering that Boston played twice yesterday before hitting the road for Toronto. That gives the Blue Jays a little edge tonight, and I’m buying into Toronto’s 15-9 record in its past 24 outings at Rogers Centre.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+162 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
I’m sticking with the hottest bat in the Toronto line-up for my player prop pick. Since the All-Star break, Guerrero has been right up there with the league’s premier hitters, sporting a .391 batting average.
Despite the Blue Jays’ struggles this season, he’s put together MVP-level numbers. Vladdy is coming off three hits in the loss to Tampa Bay yesterday, which included his 100th RBI of the season. Incredibly, that was his fourth three-hit game in his last six contests.
Guerrero has also had success against Boston’s Tanner Houck, boasting a 5-for-15 mark with two doubles and three RBI. Houck’s ERA has climbed in his past five starts, and he allowed four runs on five hits against the Mets earlier this month.
I like Vladdy’s chances of making him pay in this spot.
Ontario sports bettors: Play the Jays your way with PROLINE+
Ontario-owned and operated, PROLINE+ has a robust market offering at its disposal and reinvests 100% of its profits back into the province — join today!
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
Red Sox vs Blue Jays live odds
Red Sox vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston +100 | Toronto -120
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-225) | Toronto -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-125)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Toronto has covered the run line in 31 of its past 53 contests.
- Boston’s postseason hopes have been hit hard by a 4-6 mark in its past 10 games, and the visitors have lost the first game of their last three series.
- The Under is 7-3 in the Blue Jays' last 10 outings, and it’s been a winner in the prior three matchups between these teams.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays trend
With the runs drying up, Boston has cashed the team total Under in 10 of its last 12 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, 9-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Sportsnet |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (8-10, 3.21 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Bowden Francis (8-5, 3.47 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Red Sox vs Blue Jays weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
