The second half of a double-header gets going Tuesday night at Citi Field when the Atlanta Braves face the New York Mets for game three of a four-game series. The first game between these two saw the Braves win in comeback fashion, 5-2.
Unfortunately, the defending champs have gotten off to a sluggish start and enter today at 11-13. The Mets come in today with a record of 16-8. This is a critical early-season series between two divisional foes who both figure to be contenders by October.
Who will take game three of this series? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Mets Tuesday, May 2nd.
Braves vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Opening odds for today's matchup were released this morning. The Braves opened up as -120 favorites, with the Mets coming back at +100. The odds have not moved since then. The total opened up at a flat 8, it has fallen to 7.5 at some spots and stayed the same at others.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Braves vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 5/3/2022 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Braves vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, New York City, NY
• Date: Tuesday, May 3, 2022
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox Sports 1
Braves vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kyle Wright (3-0, 1.13 ERA): Simply put, Wright has been sensational to start the season. His expected ERA ranks in the top 10% of baseball, and nearly every metric is in the high end of pitchers. Perhaps the most impressive part of Wright's start is that he's done it while the groundball rate has fallen. Last season, Wright relied a lot on the groundball with an impressive 52% groundball rate. He still depends on them, but that number has fallen a bit.
So far this season, Wright has given up just three earned runs in over 24 innings of work. Of course, Wright will eventually have a bad outing but from a regression standpoint, there's little reason to think he can't sustain this start.
David Peterson (0-0, 0.64 ERA) Today will be Peterson's first appearance back from a short Triple-A stint. Before being sent down, Peterson made two starts for the Mets. Both were brief appearances going four innings, and both were impressive appearances. Against both the Diamondbacks and Phillies, Peterson allowed just three hits and 0 earned runs. Peterson has given up one lone run in his three appearances this season. It came in relief work against the DBacks.
The third-year lefty has been impressive this season, but you have to wonder if his lackluster barrel rate will haunt him sooner or later.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Braves: Eddie Rosario OF (Out), Luke Jackson RP (Out).
Mets: John Curtiss RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Braves are 4-1 in the last five meetings vs. the Mets. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets
Braves vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
I will side with the Braves here and will do so comfortably. I like this position with so much of David Peterson's pitching success being luck-driven — even dating back to last season. My projections have the Braves at a favorite around the -150 range, so I'll gladly take them at the current number.
During his rookie season, Peterson posted an expected ERA over 4.5 runs. He did this despite his actual ERA being just over 3.00. In other words, Peterson was expected to give up more than an entire run per game than he did. Besides this, his walk rate and strikeout ranked well below the league average, suggesting that he's prone to giving up extra baserunners. That's a problem for a team that walks like the Braves.
These numbers point to Peterson's success being more luck-driven than actual results-driven. His second year was mired by a lot of weirdness — including frequent bullpen appearances — so I don't even include that in my assessment. He's a talented pitcher, but several things point to him being due for a blow-up.
I think this is a nightmare matchup for Peterson. Outside the Yankees, the Braves might have the most potent bats in baseball. Consider that they have the second-best barrel rate in the MLB and they've accomplished that feat mostly without Ronald Acuna in the lineup. Now consider that Peterson's barrel rate has continually been rising since he's entered the bigs and has reached its worst point so far in this young season.
The Braves are poised to put a crooked number up here. I believe that -120 is a reasonably friendly line here and won't pass up on it.
Prediction: Braves moneyline (-120 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
I think the 7.5 number here is pretty spot on. My projections say around six runs for the Braves and around two runs for the Mets. So, while it's not a confident view, I'll be rolling Over here.
I give the edge here to the Over because of the aforementioned barrel rate issues for Peterson. You have to think the Braves leave the park a time or two in this one. Conditions will be solid in Citi Field for the ball to leave the park. The wind will be blowing out and it will be warmer than it has the past few days giving the ball a little more carry.
It's nothing to go crazy about, but if the Braves do what I expect them to, the Over has a good chance of cashing. The Mets have enough pop in their bets to make Wright pay for a few mistakes, and that may be all we need to push this one over the edge. While New York isn't blowing the cover off the ball, I think it has enough talent in its bats to be due for some positive regression. Perhaps that comes in this spot.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (-105 at Circa)
Best bet
Because of the nature of the double-header, props for this game weren't available at the time of publication. If they were, I might look to take advantage of the bat of Austin Riley or even Ronald Acuna, two players that I believe have favorable matchups today. But they aren't, so instead, I'll make this simple.
I'll be taking the Braves' first five innings run line in this spot. I think the chances of their bats blowing up this one early are high. I expect two or more runs to do the trick here as I believe Wright starts pretty hot. With the exceptionally high barrel rates of players such as Riley and William Contreras, I'm betting they get those runs.
You also have to figure that an Acuna bomb and a big game are just a matter of time away. He's too good for that not to be the case. He's well-suited to make that happen here.
Give me the Braves early, as this is a spot where my projections give about a 20% edge.
Pick: Braves first five innings -0.5 (+120 at Fanduel)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Braves vs. Mets picks, you could win $68.75 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
