Braves vs Mets Predictions, Picks, Odds: Fried Keeps Lineup at Bay

Divisional rivals meet up in the Big Apple for a four-game series starting tonight when the Atlanta Braves face the New York Mets.

The series will be the first of several pivotal throughout the season as the two teams duel it out in the NL East. The Braves are coming off a wild game where they led 4-0 heading into the ninth inning and lost 5-4 to the Miami Marlins. New York has hit a rough stretch. It will enter this game off a win against the Washington Nationals, which snapped a previous four-game losing streak.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves on April 28. 

Braves vs Mets odds

Braves vs Mets predictions

We'll talk more about this matchup in a bit, but I'm in a tricky spot. 

David Peterson was a pitcher I faded often last season, with mixed results. Some of the regression I expected to come last season is now happening in droves, so much so that he's due to bounce back. Likewise, the Braves should cool off a bit based on their underlying metrics. That said, I couldn't quite get to a play on the Mets. That forced me to go deep into the market for our best bet. Way deep. I'm rocking with the Mets to start the game hitless and, by doing so, backing one of the safest things in this game — Max Fried starting strong. 

The Mets' offense is going through a rough patch right now. It's eighth-to-last in runs scored over its last three games, but some underlying metrics like hard hit and exit velocity are more trouble. Most importantly for us here, it starts slow. New York is second-last in the league in first-inning runs scored at 0.15, and for whatever reason, that number goes down in home games. It doesn't get many hits either; we went through the data.

Over the last 10 games, the Mets have gotten hits in the first inning of three games. Those three came against the following pitchers: Noah Syndergaard, Sean Manaea, and Anthony DeSclafani. Not exactly murderers row and, with all due respect to that trio, none that you would put close into the same tier as Max Fried. New York is now riding a streak of six games without a first-inning hit, and we're struggling to see that improve much.

Like with the Mets, we also reviewed the data of Max Fried's first innings this season. Of course, there's a massive caveat of limited data, but it's worth noting that he has yet to give up a first-inning hit. I'm expecting him to come out sharp in this one. Fried will likely see Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and Franciso Lindor out the gate. If he can get by Nimmo, you feel great, because those two batters chase pitches and, most importantly, struggle against the curveball. That's been Fried's best pitch this season, and both batters have hit under .200 against it.

We're backing Fried to be very sharp out of the gate tonight. This matchup's divisional aspect means he'll be extra motivated to elevate his game. When he's done that, he's been close to unhittable. 

My best bet: Mets no hit in first inning (+115 at DraftKings)

Braves vs Mets moneyline analysis

I lean toward the Braves here. I'm probably not going to bet it, though.

I talked about my apprehension on that front above. Peterson has started the season in a horrific manner and is coming off one of the worst starts of his career. He's had some negative regression coming for a while now, but an expected ERA of 5.49 against an actual ERA over 7 shows us it's been a bit much. 

Peterson has struggled big time with his slider, with hitters slugging over .700 against it, but if there's one pitch Braves hitters have struggled with, it's the slider. Thus, Peterson can give a steady showing tonight.

Yet still, my model projected this money line at around -170, and you're getting it in the -130 range. Generally, that's something I would jump on, but the handicap is causing some pushback. All and all, it's a stay-away for me. 

Braves vs Mets Over/Under analysis

This total feels right, given the aforementioned pitching situations. I won't have a side here. The Mets' offense has been in a bit of a funk lately, and Fried isn't precisely the pitcher you want to see on the mound during an offensive funk. On the other side, we've already mentioned that Peterson should be poised to at least be average tonight. 

Overs have been a good bet for the majority of the season for this Atlanta team. Its games have gone Over in four straight, and in Game 1s of a series this season, Overs have hit at an 8-1 clip. In addition to that, the Over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams in New York. This total currently sits at 7.5, and I see no value there. However, if I can get a flat 6 within the first three innings, I may jump in. 

Braves vs Mets game info

Braves vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Max Fried (1-0, 0.60 ERA): It's been a terrific start to the season for Fried. He surrendered just one earned run over 14 innings. Even that lone run came in his first season start in a game he had to exit early.

You'd like a higher strikeout rate, but Fried doesn't need to strike many hitters out. He induces some of the softest contacts in the league and has one of the highest ground ball rates in baseball at an eye-popping 65.9%. 

David Peterson (1-3, 7.36 ERA): Peterson has been crushed this season. I've been wrong and right about several pitchers, but a prevailing theme for me last season was that negative regression was coming for Peterson. After an average season last year that produced a 3.83 ERA, Peterson has started this season by giving up five or more runs in three of his previous four starts.

His last one came against the San Francisco Giants, where he gave up 7 earned runs in 5 innings. Peterson's struggles have been centered around barrel rate. He ranks in the Bottom 25% of baseball, and in general, he's just not missing enough bats. 

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