The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will wrap up the weekend series tonight in primetime.
My Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions analyze the struggling Luis Gil and the relatively short-leashed Kutter Crawford.
What's the best bet here? Read on for my free MLB picks on Sunday, July 7th.
If you want more action for tonight's clash, check out J.D. Yonke's Red Sox vs. Yankees player prop picks.
Red Sox vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Kutter Crawford Under 16.5 outs (-125 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
It's nearly impossible for me to evaluate New York Yankees pitcher Luis Gil efficiently right now.
It's easy to say that he's been figured out after such a brilliant start to the season, but the metrics don't back that up. They continue to support Gil and say his last three starts where he's allowed four or more earned runs each time are more unlucky than anything being technically wrong.
But because of his unpredictability, I'm isolating one part of the handicap, putting Gil aside, and focusing on the Yankees offense against Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Kutter Crawford.
The first aspect of this handicap is the expected pitch count.
After hitting a 100 a few times this year, the Red Sox have settled into a sweet spot for Crawford between 85 and 95 pitches per game with his rolling average over the last few months being 88. The Yankees are taking roughly four pitches per plate appearance and getting about four batters per inning. On pure averages, Crawford should be expected to get dangerously close to that pitch count by the end of five frames. Of course, this doesn't consider New York's leverage in this matchup.
The Yankees' offensive production has been spotty in the midst of a recent slump, but it's still reasonable to expect them to put pressure on the opposing team's pitcher.
Crawford made it through six innings earlier this season when he faced New York and was lucky to do that as the Yankees failed to seize on multiple scoring opportunities against him. I expect that to be different this time around.
Crawford has been successful this season because he's been able to limit hard-hit balls and exit velocity. However, he's had a problem with barrel rate, which isn't surprising for a pitcher who throws over 60% of fastballs. New York is the best fastball-hitting team in the league in terms of BABIP and has the second-highest barrel rate.
Despite all its struggles, it should be able to run Crawford from this game earlier because of either performance or pitch count.
Red Sox vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees TT Over 4.5
Ben Rice Over 0.5 hits
DraftKings no longer allows the use of pitcher outs in its SGPs. Thus, we had to get a little creative.
I took the Yankees to score at least five runs, which, along with my projection of 5.6 runs, correlates with my Crawford fade.
We paired that with rookie sensation Ben Rice to get a hit. Rice is coming off an otherworldly performance on Saturday where he became the first Yankees rookie to have a three-homer game and the first Yankees rookie to drive in seven runs since the 1920s.
His number is too short and well off my projected number. Rice has done nothing but put together good swing after good swing, and I'll take my chances on a matchup where he will see a ton of fastball stuff — a pitch that two of his three home runs came off of yesterday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
Red Sox vs Yankees live odds
Red Sox vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-165) | New York -1.5 (+140)
- Moneyline: Boston +135 | New York -160
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Red Sox vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York will be looking to get its first back-to-back wins since June 12th.
- The Yankees are just 3-7 over the last 10 games and have lost bettors 4.4 units in that stretch.
- Boston has been pretty solid despite the loss last night. It has won six of its last 10 games, which has resulted in a slight profit for bettors.
- In their last 10 meetings, each team has won five games and the total has gone Over five times.
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have only hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 21 games (-16.70 Units / -54% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees
Red Sox vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Kutter Crawford (4-7, 3.47 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (9-4, 3.41 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
Red Sox vs Yankees weather
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