The New York Mets have the best record in the National League after earning a 10-6 win over the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday. The team will now try to keep up the great work when it takes on the Atlanta Braves in the first leg of a four-game set on Monday.
Will Chris Bassitt help New York keep up its momentum? Keep reading our MLB betting picks and predictions to find out.
Braves vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened at -106 in this meeting with the Braves, and they’re now up to as high as -117 favorites. However, you can still find New York for as low as -108 at some books at the time of this writing.
As for the total, you won’t find a lower number in many games this year. After opening at 7, most sportsbooks have it down at 6.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Braves vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 5/2/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Braves vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, New York City, NY
• Date: Monday, May 2, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet New York, Bally Sports
Braves vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Max Fried (2-2, 3.00 ERA): Since giving up five earned runs in 5 2-3 innings in his first start of the year, Fried has looked like his usual dominant self. Over his last 18 1-3 innings, Fried has given up only three earned runs and has racked up 16 strikeouts. One of those three outings was a seven-inning scoreless start against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Chris Bassitt (3-1, 2.25 ERA): Bassitt was brilliant in his most recent start, as he pitched six innings of shutout ball and struck out six in a win over the St. Louis Cardinals. The righty had just allowed five earned runs on eight hits in a 5-2 loss to the San Francisco Giants prior to that, so it was big that he was able to quickly bounce back. The 33-year-old will look to turn in another strong outing against a struggling Braves offense.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Braves: Manny Pina C (Out), Eddie Rosario OF (Out), Luke Jackson P (Out).
Mets: Jake Reed P (Out), Joey Lucchesi P (Out), Jacob deGrom P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Braves are 40-16 in their last 56 games when following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets
Braves vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Mets starter Chris Bassitt can look unhittable at times, but Atlanta has the 10th-highest slugging percentage in the league against right-handed pitching despite its recent struggles.
The Braves also recently got superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. back in the mix, and the five-tool threat should provide a huge spark to an offense that clearly misses Freddie Freeman.
Acuna went just 2-for-13 in his first three games back from injury, but don't forget just how explosive he was before his season-ending injury last summer. The 24-year-old slashed .283/.394/.596 with 24 home runs and 17 stolen bases in just 82 games. And while he didn't set the world on fire immediately after returning to the lineup this weekend, Acuna did swipe a pair of bags.
If the Braves can get a few off of Bassitt in this one, it should ultimately be enough for Atlanta to come away with the victory. New York doesn’t exactly have the most trustworthy bullpen in the league, which may give the Braves some other opportunities to cash in some runs. Atlanta is also 22-8 in its last 30 games against teams with winning records, and it’s 40-16 in its last 56 games following a loss.
On top of that, Fried gave up just five earned runs in 18 innings of work against the Mets last season. That was good for a 2.50 ERA over three outings, and the lefty has turned into one of the best pitchers in the National League.
Fried has looked excellent in each of his last three starts. The lefty hasn’t always been able to consistently string together impressive outings, but he seems to have found another gear in 2022.
Prediction: Braves moneyline (+100 at Unibet)
Over/Under analysis
As of Monday morning, you could still get the total at 7 on one sportsbook, which makes it worth trying your best to find it.
However, it wouldn’t be the end of the world if you have to settle on the Under at 6.5. The reality is this game features two pitchers who are capable of going six or seven innings while limiting damage even when facing imposing offense.
Fried has been dominant against the Mets in his career, going 4-3 with a 2.78 ERA in 16 games (11 starts). Meanwhile, Bassitt gets to go to work against a team that is batting just .222 against righties this year. The Braves are also just 19th in the league in runs scored against right-handed pitching.
Also, this number definitely looks like a bit of a trap at 6.5. The first instinct of a bettor will be to see that and take the Over, as it’s just an unbelievably low total for a baseball game. However, this is the type of pitching matchup that is fully capable of going below it. And with there being a leaguewide decrease in home runs, the Under is just a solid bet right now across the board even at a relatively low total.
Prediction: Under 7 (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Fried is a pitcher who does most of his work by effectively pitching to contact, and he isn’t somebody that you’ll generally see striking out a lot of batters. The lefty can, however, dial things up and make batters miss, and that’s exactly what he has done to the Mets in his career. Last season, the 28-year-old had at least seven strikeouts in each of his three starts against New York, and he had nine in his last meeting with the team.
This Mets lineup has improved significantly this season, and some of that comes from offseason moves. However, a lot of that also comes from internal improvement from year to year. Still, Fried has had so much success against this New York lineup that it’s hard not to take him to strike out six batters in this game. At plus-money, it’s definitely worth throwing a little something on this.
Pick: Max Fried Over 5.5 strikeouts (+125 at DraftKings)
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