The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres begin a four-game series at Petco Park on Thursday night. Both of these clubs have World Series aspirations but will be trying to bounce back from losses as they eagerly wait for their franchise players to return from the IL.
MLB betting lines opened with this game as a pick'em with an Over/Under of 7.5. Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Braves vs. Padres on April 14, with the opening pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET.
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Braves vs Padres odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board as a pick'em with the Over/Under at 7.5. Both the moneyline price and total have stayed relatively steady as of 10 a.m. ET, although some books have shifted the total to 8.0, juiced towards the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Braves vs Padres predictions
Picks made on 4/14/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Braves vs Padres game info
• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Thursday, April 14, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports San Diego, Bally Sports Southeast
Braves vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Charlie Morton RHP (1-0, 3.38 ERA): The 38-year-old put together a strong debut season with the Braves in 2021, going 14-6 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 33 starts. In his season debut against the Reds last Friday, Morton allowed two runs on a pair of hits in 5.1 innings, making a triumphant return to the lineup after breaking his leg in the World Series last October.
Joe Musgrove RHP (0-0, 3.00 ERA): Musgrove allowed two runs on five hits while fanning eight batters over six innings in his first start of the year last Saturday against the Diamondbacks. The San Diego native returned home last season and posted career-highs in innings (181.1), strikeouts (203), ERA (3.18), WHIP (1.08), and OBA (.213).
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Out), Luke Jackson RP (Out).
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out), Austin Adams RP (Questionable), Luis Garcia RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The braves are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in San Diego. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.
Braves vs Padres picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Atlanta Braves are coming off a 3-1 loss to the Nationals last night which dropped their season record to 3-4. Meanwhile, the Padres have lost back-to-back games which snapped a four-game winning streak.
The Braves will send two-time All-Star Charlie Morton to the mound and somehow the 38-year-old is throwing with some of the best velocity of his career. Coming off a broken leg, Morton looked very sharp in his season debut with his four-seam averaging 94.6 mph and he still possesses one of the filthiest curveballs in the game.
The Padres respond with Joe Musgrove who is coming off the best season of his career where he pitched to a 3.18 ERA in 31 starts. That said, Musgrove isn't quite as proven or consistent as Morton and while he has decent breaking stuff his fastball is mediocre.
Atlanta also has a very strong bullpen that got even better in the offseason with the additions of Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh. San Diego's relievers are also a capable bunch but it's going to be interesting to see how they perform this year after throwing very well in the first half of 2021 and imploding during the second half..
Neither team has been hitting well up to this point and both have really missed their top sluggers with Atlanta's Ronald Acuna Jr. and San Diego's Fernando Tatis Jr. still out of commission for at least another month.
However, the Braves have better depth and pop with guys like Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Olson in the heart of their lineup.
Atlanta has the harder-hitting lineup, the better starter, and a slightly superior bullpen. The edge in all those areas appears relatively small but it's an edge nonetheless. That's enough for us to back the reigning World Series champs as a pick'em tonight.
Prediction: Braves moneyline (-110 at William Hill)
Over/Under analysis
We mentioned how good Morton has been and except for the abbreviated 2020 season (which was a statistical outlier for many players), he's been one of baseball's most reliable arms for the last five years.
Musgrove has had an up-and-down career but always seems to perform very well at the start of the year. In 17 career games (and 97.2 innings) in March and April he has a sizzling 2.49 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP, and last year he pitched to a 1.24 ERA with a 0.66 WHIP in five April starts.
Both teams are also struggling at the dish. The Friars have plated just three runs in their last two games and are 18th in the majors with an OPS of .674.
Although the Braves exploded for 16 runs against the Nats on Tuesday, that was the only game in their last five where they got going with their bats. In the other four games during that span, they totaled just eight runs.
Combine all those factors with the run-suppressing nature of Petco Park and the Under looks like the play.
Prediction: Under 8 (-120 at SportsInteraction)
Best bet
With the shorter spring training, Unders have once again been a profitable play to start the season, cashing in 60.5% of all games.
This looks like another contest with a high likelihood of the Under cashing since the sluggers for both teams are underachieving and both starters have looked very sharp early in the season.
Pick: Under 8 (-120 at SportsInteraction)
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