We have the first matchup of this three-game series with the NL West’s Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the NL Central’s Milwaukee Brewers. This game is the fifth meeting between these two clubs this season, with each team taking two of the first four matchups.
Will the Dodgers take care of business as a large home favorite, or can the Brewers pull off the upset on the road? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs Dodgers on Monday, August 22.
Brewers vs Dodgers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers were unveiled as consensus –215 favorites on Sunday afternoon and have since been bet up to –225. The consensus opening total opened at 7.5 and has since shifted to 8 by the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Brewers vs Dodgers predictions
Picks made on 8/21/2022 at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Brewers vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Monday, August 22, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, SNLA
Brewers vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Eric Lauer (8-5, 3.58 ERA): Serving as a pleasant surprise for the Brewers this season, the left-hander has had a solid year anchoring the back end of Milwaukee’s rotation. He's coming off a tremendous start against these same Dodgers where he allowed just two earned runs on four hits while striking out seven over seven innings pitched — though the Brewers still lost that game. That start capped off a tremendous stretch for the southpaw. Over his last eight starts, Lauer is 2-2 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, Lauer typically relies on his fastball, which boasts a .200 xBA this season.
Julio Urias (13-6, 2.40 ERA): Like Lauer, Urias is coming off a start against tonight’s opponent. In that outing, Urias threw five shutout innings while allowing just four hits and racking up six strikeouts. Also like Lauer, Urias enters this contest in tremendous form. Over his last six starts, Urias is 6-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. While he only relies on three pitches, each boasts a .225 or lower xBA.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
Mike Brosseau has failed to record a hit in nine of his last 12 games (75%). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Dodgers
Brewers vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
Entering tonight's contest, the Dodgers have won 17 of their last 20 games (85%). Of those 17 wins, 15 have come by at least a two-run margin (88%). I expect these trends to continue with left-hander Julio Urias slated to take the mound for Los Angeles.
This season, Urias is 13-6 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. We should not expect regression from Urias, who boasts a .262 xwOBA, .211 expected batting average, and .337 xSLG.
As mentioned in the starting pitcher section, he enters this game in tremendous form. Additionally, Milwaukee is a team Urias has dominated since entering the league in 2016.
Over his seven career starts against the Brewers, Urias is 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Through 89 career plate appearances against the Dodgers’ left-hander, this current Milwaukee roster possesses a mere .200 average, .313 SLG, and .266 wOBA.
This domination should continue against a Brewers team that struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. Milwaukee ranks just 27th in the league in batting average, 29th in SLG, 27th in OPS, and 26th in wOBA.
Following Urias is one of the best bullpens in baseball. Since July 1, Los Angeles’ relief pitching ranks fourth in the league in ERA, first in WHIP, first in batting average against, first in SLG, first in wOBA, and fourth in FIP.
While the Dodgers deployed three relief pitchers in yesterday’s game, they still have a couple of great options in the pen, including Evan Phillips and Caleb Ferguson. Those two arms should be enough to close this game out, especially considering that Urias will most likely go at least six innings.
Prediction: Dodgers –1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
While the Dodgers pitching staff should shut the Brewers down, their lineup may struggle to generate runs against a dialed-in Lauer.
We should expect this trend to continue against Los Angeles, a team that Lauer has had success against in the past. Through 10 career starts against the Dodgers, Lauer is 6-1 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
Across 153 career plate appearances against Milwaukee’s left-hander, this current Dodgers roster possesses a .229 xBA and .309 xwOBA. We are getting a generous number on the total because of how powerful Los Angeles’ lineup is, but this is not a great matchup for them.
Add to the fact how poor of a matchup this is for Milwaukee as well, and we could see the bats silenced in this contest. There have been eight or fewer total runs scored in three of the four (75%) meetings between these two teams this season.
Prediction: Under 8 (-112 at FanDuel)
Best bet
With all that being said, we can find better bets than the Dodgers’ run line because Lauer has been outstanding, and I could see him shutting down this Los Angeles lineup. I am also not confident enough to take the Under due to the fact that the Dodgers offense can explode at any time.
The one play I am most confident in is for Mike Brosseau to keep struggling at the dish. Failing to record a hit in nine of his last 12 games (75%), we should expect Brosseau to go Under his hit prop once again.
It has been a tough season for Brosseau, and his metrics suggest that it will get even tougher as he possesses a mere .295 xwOBA, .219 xBA, and .344 xSLG. Going against left-hander Urias, this is one of those matchups where he sees that expected regression.
Through six plate appearances against Urias, Brosseau has collected just one hit. Additionally, Brewers’ manager Craig Counsell loves to utilize pinch hitters as matchups/situations change with the progression of the game.
Usually serving as a utility man off the bench, Brosseau could be someone who gets lifted early, which would be a nice bonus. Regardless of whether that happens or not, I like Brosseau to stay hitless in this game.
Pick: Mike Brosseau Under 0.5 hits (+100 at DraftKings)
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