After last night’s insane ninth-inning walk-off grand slam versus Josh Hader, the San Francisco Giants grabbed a lot of momentum in the four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers in the 8-5 victory. Now San Francisco will send Alex Cobb to the bump to grab the third-place Giants’ sixth win in nine games as -130 home favorites.
Can Hader and the Milwaukee bullpen bounce back today or will the Giants ride the wave from last night’s stunner into the weekend?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Giants.
Brewers vs Giants odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Giants opened as -130 home favorites after closing as -120 in the opener and +115 last night. The total sits at 8 and leans to the Under which is the highest the total has been in the series (6.5 on Thursday and 7 last night).
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Brewers vs Giants predictions
Picks made on 7/16/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
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Brewers vs Giants game info
• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Saturday, July 16, 2022
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, NBCS-BAY
Brewers vs Giants betting preview
Starting pitchers
Eric Lauer (6-3, 3.83 ERA): Coming off a June where the Milwaukee lefty went 1-2 with a 6.83 ERA and a 0.898 OPS against, Lauer has bounced back well in July with two solid outings. He posted a very impressive 3.19 ERA a season ago and Oracle Park should play in his favor, as Lauer can give up the longball but today’s venue is the best HR-suppressing park on the slate.
Alex Cobb (3-4, 4.57 ERA): Alex Cobb is currently fifth in the Giants' rotation in ERA and WHIP (1.35). He is a league-average pitcher who gave up six hits and four walks in his last outing but he still recorded 18 outs. His current ERA might be misleading as he does have a very high BABIP and is stranding runners at a low rate. His xERA is 2.84 compared to his 4.87 ERA.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the Brewers’ last seven overall games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Giants
Brewers vs Giants picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Josh Hader entered the bottom of the ninth inning with a 5-2 lead last night and subsequently gave up three homers, including the game-winning walk-off grand slam. Hader’s ERA sits at 4.50 after coming into the inning with a 2.73 ERA.
Milwaukee will need the bullpen today with Eric Lauer on the mound, as the lefty doesn’t get deep, but this is still a Milwaukee team that has the advantage in the starting pitching and one of the best bullpens in baseball — even without Hader.
The Brewers are 3-6 SU over their last nine and have the Cardinals right on their heels for the division lead. Last night’s loss might be hard to bounce back from, but there are some reasons to back the visitors today at plus money.
Lauer is the better of the two starters today and is hard to cluster hits against with a 7.96 H/9. His issue is mostly with homers and no park suppresses home runs than Oracle Park which is playing even more difficult today for the hitters than usual. He had a rough June but also had a spectacular 2.38 ERA up until June 6.
Offensively, the Giants have scored in just three of the 19 innings in this series and last night’s ninth-inning performance was extremely improbable — especially with the homers. This is an injured lineup that still doesn't have the full-time services of Wilmer Flores, Evan Longoria, and Tommy LaStella. That’s a good chunk of their starting infield, as well.
Hader’s implosion hurts the team in the long run but he was pitching his third game in four nights and wouldn’t be available today anyways. Milwaukee is still loaded with talent in the pen, and Devin Williams and his 1.77 ERA should fill in easily tonight if the Brewers need to hold a lead.
The Giants strike out at a 23% clip vs. left-handed pitching and if Lauer and the park conditions can keep the ball in the yard, the Brewers at +110 is a value play, considering they were -135 favorites last night with the starting pitching advantage.
Alex Cobb is not a better enough pitcher than Lauer to warrant a -130 price tag between two competitive teams.
Prediction: Brewers moneyline (+116 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
With a total of 8, this game could certainly close at 7.5. The opening game of the series, which was a battle between Carlos Rodon and Corbin Burnes, touched 6 at some books while last night’s Brandon Woodruff vs. Alex Wood matchup closed with a total of 7.
Lauer is a fly ball pitcher who will be aided substantially by Oracle Park, which is suppressing home runs at a -25% rate today, per Ballpark Pal. He also has one of the best framing catchers in Omar Narvaez and will be helped out by pitcher-friendly umpire Gabe Morales.
Cobb is a pitcher who is pitching below his numbers heading into the All-Star break. His xERA and xFIP are both below his actual ERA and FIP numbers while his BABIP and LOB% are below league average and his career numbers. Brighter days could lie ahead for the San Franciso starter.
The Milwaukee offense is heavily reliant on the long ball as it sits fourth in the league in total homers but with today’s hitting conditions and Cobb being a predominantly ground-ball pitcher, the Brewers and their .236 AVG (25th) could struggle to string hits together to cash in runs.
The Milwaukee bullpen will be fine as well, as Hader needs to do some soul searching. If Lauer can go six innings, the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings are in good hands with Williams (1.77 ERA), Brad Boxberger (2.57 ERA), and possibly Hoby Miler (1.98 ERA).
With two pitchers who should produce better results than their frontline numbers indicate as well as solid pitching conditions and a pitcher-friendly umpire, runs shouldn’t come in bunches today. This could easily close at 7.5, considering where the other games in this series closed.
Prediction: Under 8 (-115 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Alex Cobb’s Over 4.5 strikeouts was enticing here, but we really do love the Under 8 tonight at Oracle Park.
Lauer is a season removed from a 3.19 ERA and his biggest weakness — home runs — should be suppressed today at Oracle Park, thanks to low temperatures and decent humidity that is creating the lowest carry on the slate.
Cobb is also an elite groundball pitcher and his 62.5% groundball rate is the second best in all of baseball. If the Giants can get their defensive issues under control, Cobb could be getting some quick and easy outs.
The Milwaukee bullpen issues are not a concern, as Hader will be unavailable.
With the first game of the series hitting 6 and last night’s matchup closing at 7, the 8 seems to be a half-run too high here with pitchers who have a great matchup thanks to the park, lineups, and umpiring.
Pick: Under 8 (-115 at FanDuel)
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