It's an early-season, intriguing inter-divisional matchup when the St. Louis Cardinals make the trip to face the Milwaukee Brewers.
While it's still early, Milwaukee has shown signs of regression after its 95-game winning season last year. It's started 3-3 with an offense that has looked a bit lifeless at times. On the other hand, St. Louis looks primed for a big season and have started the year 3-1.
Who will come away with the victory in this one? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Cardinals on Thursday, April 14
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Cardinals vs Brewers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Opening odds for this game were released late last night, and we saw the Brewers as -150 favorites with Woodruff on the hill. Since then, we have seen sharp action on the Cardinals, with the Brewers falling to as low as -135 and the Cardinals coming back at +125. The total opened up at 8.0 and has remained there.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cardinals vs Brewers predictions
Picks made on 4/14/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cardinals vs Brewers game info
• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Thursday, April 14, 2022
• First pitch: 5:14 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin
Cardinals vs Brewers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Adam Wainwright (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Aging like fine wine, Adam Wainwright continues to get the job done. Last season, he posted his lowest ERA in five years and the second-highest winning percentage of his career. But, even with that, I still peg Wainwright as a candidate due for positive regression in 2022. In his first start of the year, he held the Pirates scoreless through six.
Brandon Woodruff (0-1, 17.18 ERA): Last year, Woodruff was the lynchpin of the Brewers rotation, lighting up the MLB with a K rate of 29%. He comes into this one looking to bounce back from a disastrous opening day where the Cubs blasted Woodruff to 7 earned runs in just over three innings. That made run amount would have been the most the starter had given up all of last season.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Cardinals: No injuries to report.
Brewers: Luis Urias SS (Out), Pedro Severino C (Out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Brewers.
Cardinals vs Brewers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The market is listing the Brewers as favorites mainly because they expect a bounce-back game from Woodruff, but I'm not so sure about that. While you don't expect your ace to be as bad as he was against the Cubs (and he won't be), I think Woodruff is in line for negative regression throughout the season.
Expected metrics from last season showed that Woodruff's exceptionally high strikeout rate last year simply isn't sustainable. When he isn't striking people out, Woodruff's vulnerabilities of not having a third pitch are shown. Beyond his two fastballs, there just wasn't much there.
His slider/sinkers only produced a 12% swing rate, while his offspeed pitches led to over a .300 batting average. Which begs the question: What happens when hitters are more patient with Woodruff this season?
The Cardinals routinely post an above-average strikeout rate at the plate with some of the more patient hitters in the big leagues and this season has started off as no exception. It's a limited data size, but the Cardinals are 4th in the MLB with just over six strikeouts per game. If they are patient here, I expect them to get to Woodruff eventually.
On the other end of the spectrum, it's hard to trust this Brewers lineup to find much offense yet. Sometimes, you can throw out the numbers in baseball and just say, "prove to me you're out of this slump before I believe in you." That's the case here, especially when you're getting plus money. The Brewers have started the season 26th in runs per game with an average of three. As a team, they have just one more home run than times they've been shut out.
I love this spot for St. Louis as I feel that bookmakers are overvaluing Woodruff and undervaluing the Cardinals' hitters.
Prediction: Cardinals moneyline (+130 at Wynn)
Over/Under analysis
While this isn't as confident as a side, I do feel that we can sneak the Under out of this one.
Most of this goes back to the Brewer's offensive struggles. Dating back to even spring training, Wainwright looks like he will pick right up from where he left off last season. If he can give the Cardinals six scoreless innings again (or something similar), I'm not even convinced the Brewers will score.
While I haven't said much about Woodruff that inspires optimism, I do expect him to be better than he was on opening day. He's still the ace of this staff and will be back to having his best stuff on Thursday but I just don't believe that stuff will be good enough.
Give us the Under because even if Woodruff gets another early hook, the Brewers have one of the best bullpens in baseball, even if they may have one of the most hapless offenses at the moment.
Prediction: Under 8 (-105 at FanDuel)
Best bet
This one is about value from a few different angles. This outliner price at FanDuel suggests that most books see liabilities of this alternate number. If you price shop, you'll see numbers below +200, with FanDuel being the lone exception.
I'm projecting the Cardinals as a slight favorite in this spot and have the alternate Cardinals line priced at +135. That's a significant edge and one I'll take.
We've documented Brewer's offensive struggles heavily, but it's worth mentioning again. If the Cardinals score four or more runs, that may be enough to win the game outright and cover the alternative total.
Pick: Cardinals -1.5 alternate run line (+205 at FanDuel)
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