The Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals at American Family Field to open an NL Central series with playoff implications.
My Cardinals vs. Brewers predictions target Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta and a reasonably low strikeout prop.
Read on for my MLB picks for Monday, September 2.
Cardinals vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta takes the mound this afternoon and he is a good candidate to back against the St. Louis Cardinals. While Peralta is 9-7 through 27 starts with a 3.70 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, his underlying metrics are equally dominant as he ranks in the 60th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. He also ranks in the 87th and 84th percentiles in whiff and strikeout rate, respectively.
Entering this game in particularly good form, the right-hander has surrendered one run across his last three starts (17 innings). Peralta is 2-0 over that stretch with a commanding 0.53 ERA.
His strikeout prop is set at 5.5, which is a total he's surpassed in 14 of his past 20 starts. This success is likely to continue as Peralta boasts a 1.57 ERA against the Cardinals over their past four meetings. He recorded six or more strikeouts in three of those four meetings.
And despite a 14-run outburst against the New York Yankees on Sunday, the Cardinals are a middling offense on the whole. And while Peralta only punched out two Cardinals in their most recent meeting, he cleared his prop in his other two clashes with the division rivals this season.
Cardinals vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 strikeouts
Brice Turang Over 0.5 hits
Brewers moneyline
I also want to target a Milwaukee hitter against Cardinals starter Andre Pallante and I've settled on Brice Turang, who has gone 2-for-5 in limited action against the righty and has recorded at least one hit in 13 of his past 17 games.
Finally, if we are backing a strong outing from Peralta as well as Turang to contribute on offense, then a highly correlated outcome would be for the Brewers to win.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Brewers odds
Cardinals vs Brewers live odds
Cardinals vs Brewers opening odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis +140 | Milwaukee -165
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-155) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Cardinals vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -170 favorite and has since been bet up to -175.
- The total opened at eight and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- I believe it is more likely that this total moves to 7.5 rather than 8.5, given that both pitchers rank in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
Cardinals vs Brewers trend
Peralta has recorded at least six strikeouts in 14 of his past 20 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Brewers.
Cardinals vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Monday, 9-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Midwest, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Andre Pallante (6-6, 3.80 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (9-7, 3.70 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Brewers latest injuries
Cardinals vs Brewers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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