The McNeese Cowboys pulled off the first upset of this year’s March Madness. Can they top the Purdue Boilermakers to be the first Cinderella to reach the Sweet Sixteen of this NCAA Tournament?
My McNeese vs. Purdue predictions and March Madness picks expect the Cowboys to surprise folks just like they did on Thursday in toppling Clemson. Tip comes at 12:10 ET on Saturday, March 22.
Who will win McNeese vs Purdue?
Why chicken out now? I began the week saying McNeese State was a savvy bet to make the Sweet Sixteen at +750, and now is not the time to change that tune. The Cowboys have won 12 straight, including as seven-point underdogs against Clemson on Thursday.
Note that spread. McNeese was +7 against Clemson and now only +5.5 against Purdue. Did that win improve bookmakers’ views of the Cowboys that much? Perhaps. The easiest way to filter rankings by date is to use barttorvik.com’s numbers, and McNeese moved up five spots in those efficiency rankings since Thursday, boosted by its offensive rating improving.
But mostly, an easy argument can be made that Clemson has been better recently than Purdue has been. Even including the Tigers’ opening-round loss and the Boilermakers’ win, Clemson sits at No. 18 in Torvik’s numbers since Feb. 1, 10 spots ahead of Purdue. The Boilermakers’ defense has become a liability, 4.2 points worse per 100 possessions since Feb. 1 compared to beforehand.
McNeese’s offense has a high floor, and against Purdue’s failing defense, that should create an upset.
McNeese vs Purdue prediction
My best bet: McNeese State moneyline (+200 at bet365)
Would it be safer to suggest taking the McNeese State Cowboys at +5.5, available at -110 at bet365? Of course, it would be. But McNeese’s defensive designs should stifle the Purdue Boilermakers' offense, and that furthers confidence in this upset.
Will Wade may not be able to surprise Matt Painter with a bevy of zones like he did Brad Brownell and Clemson on Thursday. But how much will the Boilermakers be able to prep for the Cowboys’ zones in just two days? This is the struggle of tournament time.
Purdue needs to hit its 3s to thrive offensively, and it usually does, making 38.3% of them this season, No. 11 in the country. The same things could have been said of Clemson, including its relative modesty of 3-point shooting frequency, hucking from deep on 38.8% of shots compared to Purdue’s 37.7%.
McNeese thrives in skewing those numbers. The Cowboys ranked 13th in the country in forcing 3-pointers, with opponents shooting from deep on 46.8% of their attempts. In close losses at Alabama and against Mississippi State, McNeese forced them to shoot from deep on 51% of their shots, then making just 30.8% of them.
Clemson knew this was coming, and it still shot from deep on 52.6% of its attempts, hitting just 30% of them.
McNeese has now stifled three major-conference teams that shoot on levels comparable to Purdue. Doing that in this second-round matchup will then put the onus on the Boilermakers to stop the Cowboys’ offense. But Purdue overcorrected after the Zach Edey Era and is now a defensive liability on the inside.
McNeese will gladly take advantage of that, especially with the No. 38 offensive rebounding rate in the country. That will raise the Cowboys’ offensive floor to a level that most +200 underdogs never enjoy.
McNeese vs Purdue same-game parlay (SGP)
McNeese moneyline
Under 143
Fletcher Loyer Under 1.5 threes
McNeese’s first-round upset threatened totals — depending on when you got the number, most people lost their Under bets — because of 60 points in the final 10 minutes as Clemson found utter desperation. The Under was oddly doomed by the blowout.
The Cowboys prefer a slow game, as did the Tigers and as do the Boilermakers. Dragging this one into the muck should again be conducive to an Under, and as long as McNeese is not winning by 20 points again, there should not be an accelerated final 10 minutes.
Clemson’s best shooter, Chase Hunter, went 2-of-7 from deep. McNeese focused on him. It should do so again against Purdue’s best shooter, Fletcher Loyer. High Point did just that in the first round, holding him to only one attempt from deep.
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McNeese vs Purdue odds
McNeese vs Purdue live odds
McNeese vs Purdue opening odds
- Spread: McNeese +6 (-110) | Purdue -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: McNeese +210 | Purdue -260
- Over/Under: Over 143 (-110) | Under 143 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
McNeese vs Purdue betting trend to know
McNeese State has been an underdog now three times this season, all three of those games coming against teams in this same NCAA Tournament. The Cowboys went 3-0 against the spread as underdogs this year. Last season, they finished 4-2 ATS as underdogs. Find more college basketball betting trends for McNeese vs. Purdue.
How to watch McNeese vs Purdue
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, RI |
| Date | Saturday, 3-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
McNeese vs Purdue key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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