The No. 6-seed BYU Cougars face off against the No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday afternoon.
The Cougars have won 10 of their last 11 games but I have concerns about their defense which is why my BYU vs Wisconsin predictions are backing the Badgers.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this East Region showdown on Saturday, March 20, with tipoff at 1 p.m. ET.
Who will win BYU vs Wisconsin?
BYU is red hot, going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread in its last 11 games. That said, Wisconsin has the defensive edge in this matchup and does a better job of limiting turnovers and making free throws.
Those factors lead to victory in a tight game, and I'm backing Wisconsin to come out on top.
BYU vs Wisconsin prediction
My best bet: Wisconsin -1 (-110 at bet365)
The Wisconsin Badgers cruised to an 85-66 win against a scrappy Montana squad on Thursday, covering the spread as 16.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the BYU Cougars had a 20-point lead in the second half against VCU and held on for an 80-71 victory despite a flurry of garbage-time threes from the Rams.
Playing at altitude in Denver favors the Provo-based Cougars. That said, after flying in on Wednesday, Wisconsin has had three days to acclimatize to the elevation, which will lessen its impact.
While both teams have efficient offenses, the Badgers do a significantly better job of taking care of the ball. The Badgers are 17th in the country in turnover rate while the Cougars are outside the Top 200. Wisconsin also leads the country in free-throw percentage (82.7%) while BYU is 245th (70.4%), which could be crucial in a game with such a close spread.
But the Badgers' superior defense is the main reason I prefer them here. The Badgers are 26th in adjusted defense and 49th in opponent effective field goal percentage (47.8%) while the Cougars are 67th in adjusted defense and outside the Top 150 in opponent eFG% (50.7%).
In particular, BYU struggles to defend the arc, ranking 242nd in opponent 3-point percentage (34.8%) while outside the Top 250 at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets. That's bad news against a Wisconsin attack that spaces the floor well and attempts threes at the 18th-highest rate in the country.
BYU vs Wisconsin same-game parlay (SGP)
Wisconsin moneyline
Alt total Over 150.5
Egor Demin Under 1.5 threes
Both teams have explosive attacks with BYU 10th in the country in adjusted offense and Wisconsin 13th. The Cougars can also push the pace and this year's edition of Wisconsin is comfortable adapting to an up-tempo style.
These teams each hit the 80-point mark in the opening round despite not shooting particularly well from deep (both hit seven threes, which is well below their season average). If either school sees positive regression with outside shooting, this game should soar Over this alternate total.
I took the Under 1.5 on Egor Demin's threes prop in the opening round and he made me pay by going 3-for-7 from long range. However, that was just the fifth time in the last 25 games that he has eclipsed that number. He's shooting just 22.2% from deep over that span and I'd be surprised if the freshman guard put together back-to-back games like that.
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BYU vs Wisconsin odds
BYU vs Wisconsin live odds
BYU vs Wisconsin opening odds
- Spread: BYU +1 (-110) | Wisconsin -1 (-110)
- Moneyline: BYU -105 | Wisconsin -115
- Over/Under: Over 155 (-110) | Under 155 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
BYU vs Wisconsin betting trend to know
The Over is 11-3-1 in BYU's last 15 games while going 9-3 in Wisconsin's non-conference contests this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for BYU vs. Wisconsin.
How to watch BYU vs Wisconsin
| Region | East |
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Saturday, 3-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
BYU vs Wisconsin key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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