Have you gotten on the Houston Cougars bandwagon yet? It’s time.
Yes, the Gonzaga Bulldogs blew out Georgia in the opening round, but the middle tier of the SEC has not exactly looked inspiring in this NCAA Tournament. That win should be taken with a grain of salt.
My Gonzaga vs. Houston predictions and March Madness picks expect a national contender to continue charging forward, and for once, that does not mean Gonzaga. Tip comes at 8:40 ET on Saturday, March 21.
Who will win Gonzaga vs Houston?
Houston will. The Cougars enjoy the nation’s longest winning streak at 14 games, complete with two wins against Arizona, one against Iowa State, and one at Texas Tech. Those four are not only the most notable victories of this stretch, but they are also the teams most comparable to Gonzaga.
And more than just winning those games, Houston went 3-1 against the spread in those four games. The sole ATS loss came in a nine-point win against Iowa State when favored by 11. The horrors.
Houston has not lost in regulation since the second game of the season, and that came against Auburn. As good as Gonzaga is — advanced metrics argue the Bulldogs should have been a No. 3 or 4 seed rather than living on this 8 line — it is far behind Auburn.
Gonzaga has not been knocked out in the first weekend of the tournament since 2008 when someone named Steph Curry introduced himself to the world. Houston’s win will not be as dramatic, but it will still end that impressive Bulldogs’ streak.
Gonzaga vs Houston prediction
My best bet: Houston -5 (-115 at bet365)
The Houston Cougars have been bored. They won the Big 12 regular season title by four games, splitting the regular-season series with Texas Tech, also their last loss, a Feb. 1 defeat by one point in overtime.
Then they went and dominated the Big 12 Tournament to emphasize that conference ownership. Winning the semifinal against BYU as a 6.5-point favorite and the final against Arizona as a 5-point favorite was the first time Houston played back-to-back games as a favorite of nine points or fewer all season. For the sake of being genuine, let’s say it was the first time since late January games at Kansas and at West Virginia, though the Jan. 25 game in Lawrence featured the Cougars as one-point underdogs.
Think about that for a moment.
Houston has been favored in 34 of 35 games this season. The sole exception was as a one-point underdog at Kansas. The Cougars were never favored by nine or fewer points in back-to-back games until the final rounds of the Big 12 Tournament. They could cruise this season, and they knew it.
Yet when Houston had reason to care, it did. Including those two Big 12 Tournament wins, the Cougars have gone 6-0-1 against the spread in their last seven games when favored by nine or fewer points or as underdogs. They exceeded expectations by an average of 4.9 points, including the push.
That is all to say, it is quite possible we have underappreciated Houston because its slow pace leads to fewer blowouts, and that reality diminishes the Cougars’ NET rating. Houston played at the sixth-slowest pace this season. That artificial ceiling on Cougars' appreciation is not a piece of entire fiction.
On the other side of this court, the Gonzaga Bulldogs play at the 44th-fastest pace, arguably inflating its perception thanks to a bounty of blowouts. Regardless of your feelings about that thinking, it cannot be argued that the Bulldogs disappointed at just 15-19 ATS this year.
Most pertinently, Gonzaga depends on inside scoring, taking 3s only 33.5% of the time. The Bulldogs scored 56.2% of their points on 2-point field goals this year, the 19th-highest rate in the country.
Arguably the best defense in the country, Houston forces 3s on 43.2% of opposing shots, foes scoring just 44.2% of their points on 2-point field goals, the 38th-lowest rate in the country.
All trends aside, the Cougars should be able to cover -5 simply because the Bulldogs’ offense is going to be so disjointed against this exact defense.
Gonzaga vs Houston same-game parlay (SGP)
Houston -5
Gonzaga team total Under 67.5
Ryan Nembhard 2+ threes
Hello escalated payout on a counterintuitive same-game parlay.
The premise is rather simple. Houston is going to force Gonzaga to stay on the perimeter. The Cougars play too slowly to allow transition buckets, and the defense is designed to force foes into bad 3s and little else.
Gonzaga will struggle with that, in part because it shoots just 35.1% from deep. That is above average, but not by enough to suggest an incoming barrage.
Only two Bulldogs shoot better than 35% from deep on more than an attempt per game, Nolan Hickman and Ryan Nembhard. The latter will both play more and handle the ball more. If Houston is going to force Gonzaga to stick to the perimeter, a 40% shooter may need to chuck more often than he is used to.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Gonzaga vs Houston odds
Gonzaga vs Houston live odds
Gonzaga vs Houston opening odds
- Spread: Gonzaga +5 (-110) | Houston -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Gonzaga +180 | Houston -220
- Over/Under: Over 140.5 (-110) | Under 140.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Gonzaga vs Houston betting trend to know
In the last seven games with Houston favored by nine points or fewer or an underdog, all seven Cougars opponents have fallen short of their team totals, disappointing bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 6.7 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Gonzaga vs. Houston.
How to watch Gonzaga vs Houston
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | INTRUST Bank Arena, Wichita, KS |
| Date | Saturday, 3-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Gonzaga vs Houston key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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