Remember the restaurant scene between Robert De Niro and Al Pacino in “Heat”?
March Madness bettors get the college hoops version of that electric silver screen standoff when Rick Pitino and the No. 2 St. John’s Red Storm battle John Calipari and the No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks in the Round of 32.
These two legendary coaches have a storied history and know each other better than anyone, which is one of the reasons why my Arkansas vs. St. John's predictions take the Under on the Red Storm's team total.
Read all about it in my March Madness picks for March 22.
Who will win Arkansas vs St. John's?
The Red Storm are notable favorites as the No. 2 seed, and while the final score could be closer than the oddsmakers expect, the outright odds favor St. John’s with an implied win probability of 75%. Pitino and the Johnnies move on.
Arkansas vs St. John's prediction
My best bet: St. John’s team total Under 75.5 (-120 at bet365)
The Pitino vs. Calipari rivalry runs deep, with both coaches knowing each other’s strengths and weaknesses. The names on the jerseys have changed, but the methods remain the same.
St. John’s staked its claim as a No. 2 seed with one of the best defenses in the land. The Red Storm are currently tops in adjusted defensive efficiency, fueled by feverish pressure and a stingy interior that gives up no easy looks (11th in eFG%).
Arkansas isn’t too far behind the Johnnies in the defensive metrics, rated No. 16 in that popular KenPom measurement, and also doing an elite job protecting the rim, with size and athleticism (5.6 blocks per game — fourth).
Needless to say, clean looks at the basket will be at a premium in Providence.
Looking specifically at St. John’s offense, this attack depends on defense to kickstart its scoring opportunities. The Red Storm score 17.8 points per game off turnovers and crash the offensive glass for 15.8 second-chance points — third most in the land.
Those facets combine for almost 43% of St. John’s total offense. Outside of that, the Red Storm are bad on offense. They’re horrid in the half-court and can’t shoot their way out of a wet paper bag, ranked 329th in 3-point success (30.8%).
The Johnnies did make 14 of 37 from beyond the arc versus Omaha in the Round of 64 — a massively uncharacteristic effort from a team that averages just over 20 triples an outing. That perimeter outburst helped St. John’s put up 83 points in the tournament opener and is inflating its team total for Saturday’s game.
The Razorbacks are very athletic for a team with the 18th-tallest roster in Div-I. That will allow Arkansas to get back on defense against a Red Storm team that likes to push the pace with the basketball. The Razorbacks also clean the glass, sitting 56th in defensive rebounds and allowing less than 11 second-chance points against.
The Hogs did a good job pushing Kansas to the perimeter in the Round of 64, especially in the first half. The Jayhawks shot just 17-for-41 from inside the arc (41%) and if not for its sudden success from deep (8-for-17 after shooting 35.4% from three on the season), KU’s final score would have been much lower.
Game models for the Red Storm range from 73 points to 76, but most of these forecasts are below St. John’s team total of 75.5 Over/Under. Given these foes' makeup and the coaches' familiarity, I believe the scoring floor is much lower.
Arkansas vs St. John's same-game parlay (SGP)
St. John’s team total Under 75.5
St. John’s moneyline
RJ Luis 2+ threes
The Red Storm run into a fast and long Arkansas defense that will give them trouble around the basket. St. John’s will also lack its usual advantage on the offensive glass.
While I could see this game being much tighter than the spread, I like the Red Storm to advance. Arkansas almost gift-wrapped KU a win with a skunky second half and piss-poor execution on offense.
St. John’s is not a good 3-point shooting team outside of Luis. With the Johnnies pushed to the perimeter, he’ll take and make at least two triples. Luis has made two or more from deep in six of his last seven games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arkansas vs St. John's odds
Arkansas vs St. John's live odds
Arkansas vs St. John's opening odds
- Spread: Arkansas +6.5 (-110) | St. John's -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Arkansas +230 | St. John's -280
- Over/Under: Over 144 (-110) | Under 144 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arkansas vs St. John's betting trend to know
St. John's has gone Under the total in 12 of its last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. St. John's.
How to watch Arkansas vs St. John's
| Region | West |
| Location | Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, RI |
| Date | Saturday, 3-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Arkansas vs St. John's key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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