The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals begin a four-game set at Wrigley Field tonight, and the Cards have struggling righty Sonny Gray slated to start.
Chicago woke up at the dish Wednesday after a sleepy start to the second half, and my top Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions are calling for the good times to keep rolling for the North Siders against Gray tonight.
Let's dig in with my full MLB picks below.
Cardinals vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Sonny Gray Under 17.5 outs (+135 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The wheels have fallen off for St. Louis Cardinals veteran Sonny Gray, and he’s served up a 6.67 ERA and 1.55 WHIP while allowing opposing hitters to tee off for 24 runs across just 28 1/3 innings across his past five starts. Gray’s been unlucky during the skid with his 2.49 xFIP a high-end mark and his .425 BABIP is unsustainably high.
Still, opposing hitters are squaring him up during the five-game stretch with a 41.2% hard-hit rate and 9.4% barrel rate, per FanGraphs. Those respective marks are the 21st and 19th highest among qualified pitchers, and I’m also skeptical of Gray turning it around because his pitch values are down for his three most frequent pitches compared to last season.
The Chicago Cubs are also ripe candidates for continued positive regression at the dish after exploding for 13 runs on 17 hits — 10 for extra bases — yesterday. Chicago entered Wednesday’s contest scoring just 2.6 runs per game with a 29th-ranked .258 wOBA and 30th-ranked .241 BABIP since the All-Star break, after all.
This will also be the third start of the year against the Cubbies for Gray, with the last just before the break on July 12. Chicago’s familiarity with the righty is also a plus. Finally, there’s also potential for rain to impact tonight's game, and the wind is forecast to be blowing out slightly at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.
Cardinals vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Sonny Gray Under 17.5 outs
Sonny Gray Under 6.5 strikeouts
Cubs moneyline
All three legs of this same-game parlay are correlated to align with Gray’s recent struggles continuing tonight at Wrigley Field. As discussed, the Cubs underachieved at the dish before Wednesday’s breakout, and I anticipate another hit parade tonight.
Chicago starter Shota Imanaga has also rebounded nicely from a rough outing against the New York Mets on June 21 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through 30 2/3 innings across his past five starts. Those numbers are right in line with his respective season-long 2.95 and 1.07, too. The Cards also sport a 29th-ranked .275 wOBA and 28th-ranked 82 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers for the campaign.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Cubs odds
Cardinals vs Cubs live odds
Cardinals vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: St. Louis -1.5 (+155) | Chicago +1.5 (-185)
- Moneyline: St. Louis -110 | Chicago -110
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Cardinals vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a small move to the Chicago side of this moneyline as of Thursday morning.
- Pinnacle opened with the Cubs a -108 favorite, and they’ve moved to -111, while bet365 has made a similar adjustment off the opening -110 to -115.
- The total has seen back-and-forth action at both shops with the opening 8.0 carrying a higher vig on the Under before moving briefly to 7.5.
- Neither Pinnacle nor bet365 hung the 7.5 number long, and both books have returned to the 8.0 total as of Thursday morning.
Cardinals vs Cubs trend
Sonny Gray has pitched five innings or fewer in three of his past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs
Cardinals vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Midwest, Marquee |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Sonny Gray (10-6, 3.79 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Shota Imanaga (8-2, 2.95 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Cubs latest injuries
Cardinals vs Cubs weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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