Cuba vs Netherlands World Baseball Classic Predictions, Picks, Odds: Strong Cuban Lineup Starts Hot

The World Baseball Classic kicks off tonight at 11 p.m. ET, with the two betting favorites in Pool A opening the tournament in Taichung, Taiwan as Cuba takes on the Netherlands.

The Dutch might be the underdogs but they have a history of some huge upsets in the tournament, while the -210 moneyline favorites have plenty of MLB talent on offense. 

With pitching question marks on both sides and some pitching limits early in the tournament, should bettors be expecting runs in the opener? 

Find out where my best bets lie in the WBC opener between the Netherlands vs. Cuba.

Cuba vs Netherlands odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 7, 2023.

Cuba vs Netherlands picks and predictions

“We would need to score runs.”

That’s a quote from the Netherlands’ Xander Bogaerts, referencing the inexperience his team has in pitching heading into the tournament. Tom de Blok will start the opener for the underdogs and if you don't know who he is, that's understandable. 

The right-hander threw two shutout innings over two appearances in the 2017 WBC when the Netherlands finished in fourth place but he's also just thrown 38 innings over the last two years and missed all of last season professionally in the Netherlands. Using de Blok early likely indicates the Dutch are going with many arms in this game.

He and a very shallow Dutch pitching staff will face the likes of MLB hitters Luis Robert, Yona Moncada, and Andy Ibanez, as well as WBC home run leader Alfredo Despaigne. Considering a very similar Dutch pitching staff allowed 22 total runs vs. Israel, Spain, Sweden, and Czechia in the 2021 European Championships, facing some MLB talent at the plate will be a big wake-up call.

Here is what a possible Cuban lineup might look like:

?????? Posible Lineup del equipo Cuba para el partido inaugural en el WBC 2023.

???? Vía: V Clásico Mundial en Telegram pic.twitter.com/DGYu73VOUV

— El Clásico ? (@MayoresShow) February 26, 2023

To make matters worse, the Dutch will have to likely dip into their pitching staff early and often as no pitcher is allowed to throw more than 65 pitches in pool play, cannot pitch on back-to-back days after throwing 30-plus pitches (they play tomorrow as well), and needs four days of rest if they throw 50-plus pitches.

With neither team strong in pitching, I’m projecting runs in Taichung. The total opened as low as 7.5 at some books and hit 8.5 in some places this afternoon. 

With the Cubans having the much better offense, this being a critical game between the two betting favorites to win the pool, and Cuba getting at least nine innings to hit as the visitors, I’m taking the favorite’s team total Over 4.5 up to -135.

My best bet: Cuba team total Over 4.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Cuba vs Netherlands moneyline analysis

The Cuban National team enters the World Baseball Classic opener as -205 “road” favorites vs. the Dutch, who have finished fourth in the tournament in back-to-back appearances. 

This is a game between two of the pool’s betting favorites, as the Dutch are +240 to finish first in the five-team division while the Cubans sit as the favorites at +120.

There is a big difference in talent, however, when it comes to the Cuban’s top-end players. This is a team that will run out Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, and a heavy-hitting Alfredo Despaigne for its middle order. Even starting pitcher Yariel Rodriguez has the edge vs. Dutch starter Tom de Blok, who has thrown just 38 innings over the last two seasons while Rodriguez has been fairly dominant in Japan in a middle-reliever role.

With this being the first game for many players, variance will be a little higher than normal and not something I’m willing to lay any juice or play the run line. The moneyline hasn’t moved much and the Dutch at +175 with the last bat is likely the right side in terms of value. 

I like both teams being able to put up runs, especially with the venue, both teams playing tomorrow, and the pitching rules. Cuban pitching can have plenty of heat but command is something I worry about with many arms not playing outside of the Cuban National Series.

With a possible parade of pitchers, sooner or later we’re going to run into command issues and with pitchers having to see at least three batters, either offense could take advantage.

I’m off this side but do like both clubs to top their team totals.

Cuba vs Netherlands Over/Under analysis

It’s no surprise that I also love the full game Over 8 (play up to 9) after loading the Cuba team total Over 4.5 into the account. 

Cuba will get their runs, with a loaded middle of a lineup and some suspect Dutch pitching that could throw in the “B” bullpen if they trail heavily. This would help them save some of the better arms for another game tomorrow vs. Panama, which is a must-win if they want to move on. 

However, the Netherlands has some pop in the middle of the order too with Bogaerts as well as Johnathan Schoop, who has a career .255 batting average over 4,400 MLB at-bats and nine double-digit home run seasons.

He was also an All-Star and finished 12th in MVP voting in 2017. Without the MLB stars, this offense averaged over 10 runs per game in the 2021 European Championship. Add in Jurickson Profar, Andrelton Simmons, Didi Gregarious, and Wladimir Balentien and this roster should be able to hit the four-run mark fairly easily. 

WBC Warm-Up Game

COCO POWER! Team Netherlands Wladimir Balentien took a slider to deep left for a 2-run shot!#WorldBaseballClassic pic.twitter.com/dLfmjWJzVD

— CPBL STATS - ♥? #95, Mina (@GOCPBL) March 6, 2023

Cuban starter Yariel Rodríguez will likely serve as an opener as well and expose Cuba’s biggest weakness which is pitching. Rodriguez was a middle reliever last season for the Chunuchi Dragons of the NPB and likely won’t throw more than 29 pitches to make him available for the March 9 game vs. a very underrated Italian team.

Even if this game gets out of hand and the Cubans mercy the Dutch, the seven-inning mercy rule is 10 runs so the Over will still be live. 

Taichung Stadium is not the greatest field in professional baseball and could also lead to some possible infield miscues from MLB infielders who are used to the best.

The game-time weather will be about 66 degrees (20 Celsius) and have a slight wind (6 mph) and 50% humidity. The weather should be neutral and any wind blowing out will only favor the Over. The venue measures 325 down the lines, 379 to the right- and left-center field, and 400 feet straight out.   

The Over is getting a lot of the handle and if bettors miss the 8, I’d still play the Over all the way to 9 at +105. 

Cuba vs Netherlands game info

Cuba vs Netherlands starting pitchers

Yariel Rodriguez: The right-handed reliever has pitched the last three seasons in Japan for the Chunuchi Dragons, where he's compiled a 10-10 record across 175-plus innings with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.226 WHIP. He isn't a starter so won't likely throw more than two innings. He has a three-pitch mix (slider and chang-up) and sits in the lower 90s with his fastball. He has a 26% K-rate in Japan but with plenty of walks (3.96/K).

Tom de Blok: de Blok didn't pitch last year thanks to an injury and only totaled 38 innings in the Dutch professional league in 2021. He's made it as high as Single-A in the Tigers' organization but consistently gave up hits (8.9 H/9) and didn't miss a ton of bats (7.1 K/9). He has thrown a perfect game in the Dutch league but with his lack of innings over the last two seasons, he will likely give way to the pen early in this game. 

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