Cuba vs Panama World Baseball Classic Predictions, Picks, Odds: Cubans Headed Toward Early Exit

Cuba is going to need a really short memory if it wants to have any chance of moving on to the next round of the World Baseball Classic as it takes on Panama Friday in Taichung, Taiwan.

Cuba will be just about 13 hours removed from its gut-wrenching extra-inning defeat at the hands of Italy. The loss dropped Cuba to a shocking 0-2 in Pool A play and it’ll need nothing short of a blowout win to keep its WBC hopes alive.

That might be easier said than done against what has been a scrappy Panama team that got its first win against Chinese Taipei and then gave the Netherlands a run for their money.

Cuba is the favorite here, but just how motivated will it be? I break down the World Baseball Classic odds and bring you my best bet for Cuba vs. Panama.

Cuba vs Panama odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 9, 2023.

Cuba vs Panama picks and predictions

It has been a disappointing World Baseball Classic for the Cubans, to say the least. Cuba opened pool play with a tough 4-2 loss to the Netherlands and followed that up by falling 6-3 in extras to Italy. Now it faces the real possibility of being eliminated in the pool stage.

The biggest problem for Cuba has been its hitting. The Cubans' big-name bats just haven’t gotten hits when needed. Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, and Yeonis Cespedes are a combined 2-for-23 through Cuba’s first two games.

The lack of runs means the Cubans will have to lean on their pitching in this one, and it sounds like they'll hand the ball to Ronald Bolanos. The 26-year-old right-hander is part of the Kansas City Royals farm system and has been mostly used as a reliever since 2021 with a few brief MLB stints.

Last season he had eight appearances with the Royals, pitching to a 4.42 ERA but an ugly 1.75 WHIP. He also struck out just 5.9 batters per nine innings. His numbers at Triple-A Omaha were similar, with a 6.91 ERA, a 1.85 WHIP, and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 28 games.

Bolanos will have to deal with a Panama team that is flying high in this matchup. They opened the tournament with a big 12-5 win over Chinese Taipei and then battled hard in falling to an undefeated Netherlands team 3-1. 

This team is led by MLB catcher Christian Bethancourt but there are several players on this roster with MLB and minor league experience, including former Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada and Jonathan Araúz, who split parts of last season with the Red Sox and Orioles. 

These guys have brought their hitter’s eye. While this lineup may not have a ton of pop, they are hitting .296 as a team and have drawn 12 walks in two games helping them to the second-highest OBP so far in the tournament. 

Panama counters Bolanos with Andy Otero, a left-hander who has most recently spent time in the Milwaukee Brewers farm system. Last season he split time between Triple-A Nashville and Double-A Biloxi where he pitched to a 3.42 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. He also pitched in the CBPL (the top-tier league in Taiwan where he had a 4.05 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.

Cuba’s hitters have just looked off-balance all tournament and Otero is an offspeed pitcher who can keep that going. 

On top of that, I’m not sure what Cuba’s motivation will be here. This team had high aspirations but they looked deflated following that extra-inning loss to Italy. Now the Cubans have to play another game a little more than 12 hours later. They know the reality of the situation, not only would they need to win out but they’ll need help as well.

Give me Panama as dogs here.

My best bet: Panama moneyline (+140 at DraftKings)

Cuba vs Panama moneyline analysis

Despite the disappointing start to the tournament, Cuba should be the favorite in this matchup, and that’s exactly what it is. Cuba opened this matchup at -120 following yesterday’s defeat, but bettors think it won’t throw in the towel just yet, as the line moved to -140 and is now -165 as of Thursday afternoon. 

That kind of juice makes me uncomfortable when laying with a team where you might be questioning their motivation. 

This is a team that likely thought it had a good chance to win Pool A and eventually advance to the semifinals in Miami. But that’s why they play the game, and now that a trip to Miami is more than likely off the table, it’s hard to imagine what level of effort will be put into this game with such a quick turnaround to boot.

Meanwhile, Panama is playing free and loose, and with a fun energy. That makes this team dangerous. And who knows, with a win in this one, maybe it’s Panama stealing a spot in the next round.

Cuba vs Panama Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup is on the board at an even eight. Panama has been in both a high-scoring and low-scoring game so far in the tournament, while Cuba’s bats have been silent and the team has had two low-scoring games through regulation.

This could be a matchup where Cuba does a little more. Panama as a team has a 1.65 WHIP and its opponents are hitting .309. While Panama scored just one run against the Netherlands, it did manage seven hits. Cuba just played a game 13 hours ago where it used five relievers. 

I would probably lean Over here. 

Cuba vs Panama game info

Cuba vs Panama starting pitchers

Ronald Bolanos: The 26-year-old righty is in the Royals' farm system but has largely been used out of the bullpen, not as a starter. He had eight appearances in the Majors last season, pitching to a 4.42 ERA and striking out 5.9 batters per nine innings.

Andy Otero: Panama's lefty starter last spent time with Milwaukee, splitting time between Triple- and Double-A last season. Playing in Taiwan's top league, he posted a 4.05 ERA.

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