The final game of this NL Central series gets underway today with the St. Louis Cardinals hosting the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. MLB odds have St. Louis as a moderate -135 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Cubs vs. Cardinals prediction is optimistic on the underdog, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Cubs vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Cubs moneyline (+114 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The St. Louis Cardinals hand the ball to right-hander Miles Mikolas, and he should be a good fade candidate. Mikolas possesses a fade-worthy 4.88 ERA and 1.21 WHIP through 19 starts this season.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as he ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate. These woes are likely to continue against the Chicago Cubs, a team Mikolas possesses a 5.00 ERA against over the past four meetings.
He also may not receive much run support as the Cardinals rank 20th in runs scored per game. By comparison, Chicago ranks 18th in the same category.
Hitting is not the only advantage that the Cubs possess in this game as right-hander Jameson Taillon is slated to take the mound. The former No. 2 overall draft pick has been tremendous this season, posting a 6-4 record through 15 starts with a commanding 2.99 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
Furthermore, the right-hander enters this contest in great form. Taillon has surrendered two or fewer runs in five of his past six starts, posting a 2.37 ERA over that stretch.
Cubs vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 strikeouts
Under 8.5
Taillon may not be the most strikeout-heavy pitcher on Sunday’s card, but he's more than capable of reaching five punchouts. This season, he ranks in the 63rd percentile in chase percentage, which should bode well against a Cardinals team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate against righties.
If we're backing a strong performance from Taillon, then nine runs will likely be hard to come by. While Chicago is still the team to back at plus money, both clubs rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS, and home runs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
Cubs vs Cardinals live odds
Cubs vs Cardinals opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-180) | St. Louis -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Chicago +110 | St. Louis -130
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Cubs vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- St. Louis opened as a -130 favorite and has since been bet up to -135.
- I believe this minimal line movement is influenced by the recency bias of the Cardinals playing a better brand of baseball, but in my opinion, that doesn't outweigh the obvious pitching advantage for Chicago.
- The total opened at 8.5 and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I'd be shocked if the total reaches 9, so if you like the Under, it is probably best to strike sooner rather than later.
Cubs vs Cardinals trend
The Cubs have won seven of their past 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals.
Cubs vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, Bally Midwest |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (6-4, 2.99 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Miles Mikolas (7-7, 4.88 ERA) |
Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries
Cubs vs Cardinals weather
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