Coming off back-to-back losses at home to the Minnesota Twins, the Texas Rangers will look to avoid dropping a third straight in Game 3 of a four-game series.
Despite the two losses, the Rangers are a -135 moneyline favorite by the MLB odds, thanks in part to the Twins sticking a young pitcher on the mound.
Twins vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases (+105 via bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
It’s been a tough start to David Festa’s rookie season for the Minnesota Twins. The No. 6 prospect in the organization — and the 88th in MLB — Festa has appeared in six games since June 27 with five starts.
Across 27 2/3 innings this season, Festa has a 5.20 ERA with 28 hits, 16 earned runs, and seven homers allowed. And while he’s racked up 33 strikeouts while leaning on his four-seamer, it could come back to bite him against Corey Seager and the Texas Rangers.
Seager hasn’t been as dominant in 2024 compared to last year, but he’s bounced back from a slow start to turn in his fifth All-Star season.
And while he’s not hitting for contact at the same level in August, he’s been knocking the seams off of every baseball his bat sees. This month, he has a whopping .679 SLG with seven homers and 36 total bases in 13 games.
Over the last month and a half, he’s averaging 2.2 total bases per game and should cross Over 1.5 for the 19th time in his last 29 games against Festa.
That’s music to Seager’s ears. There’s no pitch he’d rather see this season than a four-seamer. He’s putting up a .273 xBA and .662 xSLG against them with a run value of 11 — his best against any pitch.
Twins vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases
David Festa Over 1.5 walks allowed
Royce Lewis Over 0.5 hits
While Festa has to worry about Seager crushing baseballs to the moon, he’s also going to need to focus on control. The Rangers have walked the sixth most in the AL (387) this season and Festa showed in his last outing how the ball can get away from him.
He’s issued at least two walks in three of his last four games. That’s why the Twins will need Royce Lewis to continue shining. He’s slashing .271/.368/.583 in August with 13 hits in 14 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Rangers odds
Twins vs Rangers live odds
Twins vs Rangers opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-190) | Texas -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +110 | Texas -130
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Twins vs Rangers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Even after dropping two straight, the Rangers opened as a -130 to -135 moneyline favorite with most books seeing minimal movement.
- Texas sits third in the AL West at 56-67 while Minnesota is second in the AL Central at 69-53.
- The Over/Under opened between 8 and 8.5 and remains there. A few books have the Under at even money and a few have the Over at even money.
- The Rangers are one of the worst Over teams in MLB at 55-63-5, but the Twins are solid at 62-56-4.
Twins vs Rangers trend
The Rangers have cashed the moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+3.45 units / 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Rangers.
Twins vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North, Bally Sports Southwest |
| Twins starting pitcher: | David Festa (2-2, 5.20 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Nathan Eovaldi (8-6, 3.75 ERA) |
Twins vs Rangers latest injuries
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