The Toronto Blue Jays evened up their series with the New York Mets by taking last night’s matchup and will be looking for more this afternoon.
Today's Mets vs. Blue Jays predictions love the early Under with reigning American League Pitcher of the Month Bowden Francis facing off against steady Sean Manaea.
My MLB picks for this interleague matchup go further into the matchup for Wednesday, September 11.
Mets vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Under 4.5 First Five Innings (-139 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays jumped all over New York Mets starter David Peterson, tagging him for five runs in the first three innings, and never looked back in an eventual 6-2 victory.
And Toronto should like its chances in this afternoon’s rubber match as the Jays hand the ball to Bowden Francis.
To call Francis’ turnaround this season impressive would be an understatement. The 28-year-old right-hander earned a spot in the Jays’ rotation out of camp, but quickly struggled and was sent back down to the minors only to later return as a long reliever.
But thanks to the trade deadline and a spate of injuries, Francis was thrust back into the Jays rotation, and he has been dealing ever since. He made five starts in August, pitching to a 1.06 ERA while limiting opponents to a .081 batting average, and a .301 OPS while striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings.
Francis carried that over into September by recording a quality start against a very tough Philadelphia Phillies team.
He’ll take the ball against a surging but inconsistent Mets lineup this afternoon. New York has won a bunch of games over the last two weeks but ranks a surprising 21st in batting average and OPS, and 18th in wRC+ over its last 13 games.
Countering Francis will be veteran left-hander Sean Manaea. It’s been a bounce-back season for the 32-year-old, who is pitching to a 3.43 ERA. That number has dropped to 2.89 over his last nine starts while limiting opponents to a .163 batting average.
While Toronto had success against yesterday’s lefty, southpaws have generally given the Jays more problems this season. The Blue Jays rank 25th in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 23rd in wRC+ vs. LHP.
That has me betting that pitching will be the story early in this one. So give me the Under F5 total.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Bowden Francis Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Francis keeps mowing down opposing batters and I like him to keep doing that this afternoon.
Francis is striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings over his last six starts with a 32.1% K-rate. That’s about on par with what Blake Snell has done this season. It has also meant Francis has struck out at least six batters in five of those six starts.
Today, he’ll face a Mets team that’s been middle of the pack when it comes to strikeout rate, ranking 16th in the MLB at 22.9% vs. righties. And there’s been a lot more swing-and-miss in the Mets’ lineup recently with that K-rate jumping up to 27% over the last two weeks. That’s the third-highest in baseball over that stretch.
Francis’ strikeout prop is shockingly sitting at 5.5. I’m betting he pitches well enough in this game to hit the Over on that number once again.
Ontario sports bettors: Play the Jays your way with PROLINE+
Ontario-owned and operated, PROLINE+ has a robust market offering at its disposal and reinvests 100% of its profits back into the province — join today!
Mets vs Blue Jays odds
Mets vs Blue Jays live odds
Mets vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -125 | Toronto +105
- Run line: New York -1.5 +135 | Toronto +1.5 -160
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0
Mets vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened as +105 home underdogs, but early bettors are liking the short price with the Mets as favorites and now Toronto sits at +110.
- While the Blue Jays have undoubtedly played better since the trade deadline, the bullpen remains a big variable. The group ranks 25th in xFIP in the second half.
- The total hit the board at an even 8.0 and bettors have begun to hit the Under with 7.5s starting to pop up late Wednesday morning.
- Eliminating the bullpen is a must when betting on or against Toronto, which is why I prefer five-inning bets these days.
Mets vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games for +10.45 Units and a 19% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Blue Jays.
Mets vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, Sportsnet |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Sean Manaea (11-5, 3.43 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Bowden Francis (8-4, 3.72 ERA) |
Mets vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Mets vs Blue Jays weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
