The second installment of this interleague series gets underway on Saturday with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Cleveland Guardians at American Family Field. MLB odds have Milwaukee as a slight -118 betting favorite, while the total sits at 7.5.
My Guardians vs. Brewers predictions are bullish on the Under, primarily due to the pitching matchup. Read on for my MLB picks for Saturday, August 17.
Guardians vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-102 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Right-hander Tanner Bibee takes the mound for the Cleveland Guardians, and he should serve as a good candidate to back on Saturday. Bibee is 10-4 through 23 starts this season, sporting a 3.39 ERA and 1.09 ERA.
His underlying metrics are equally strong as the right-hander ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rate. Entering this game in particularly good form, Bibee has surrendered two or fewer runs in each of his past four starts, boasting a commanding 1.61 ERA over that stretch.
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers hand the ball to right-hander Freddy Peralta, who enters Saturday with a whiff rate that ranks in the 90th percentile.
There's also no denying the brilliance of these two bullpens, as both relief staffs are currently in the top half of the league in both ERA and xFIP.
Guardians vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Tanner Bibee Over 5.5 strikeouts
Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 strikeouts
If we are backing a low-scoring affair, then a highly correlated outcome would be for both starting pitchers to put together strong performances. Let’s start with Bibee, who sits in the 57th percentile in whiff rate and 77th percentile in strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, Peralta ranks in the 88th percentile in strikeout rate and has recorded six or more Ks in 13 of his past 17 starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Brewers odds
Guardians vs Brewers live odds
Guardians vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland -1.5 (+160) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-192)
- Moneyline: Cleveland -105 | Milwaukee -115
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Guardians vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -115 favorite and has since been bet up to -118.
- This line movement makes sense, given that the Brewers outrank Cleveland in runs scored per game, OBP, and OPS.
- The Guardians have hit the team total Under in 20 of their last 28 away games (+10.80 Units / 33% ROI).
Guardians vs Brewers trend
The Under is 5-3-1 over Cleveland’s past nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Brewers.
Guardians vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Tanner Bibee (10-4, 3.39 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (7-7, 4.11 ERA) |
Guardians vs Brewers latest injuries
Guardians vs Brewers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
