The Los Angeles Dodgers are steamrolling towards the MLB All-Star break. They have won seven of their last eight to extend their lead to six games in the National League West.
Tonight, they’ll hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin who is making a strong case to be named the starter for the NL in the mid-summer classic. Do the Cubs stand a chance, and could they have betting value as big underdogs?
Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Dodgers on Thursday, July 7.
Cubs vs Dodgers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers opened this NL matchup as hefty -280 favorites, but the Cubs have seen a tiny bit of action with the Dodgers in the -270 to -275 range as of Thursday afternoon. The total hit the board at 8.5 but is juiced to the Under, to the point where you can find 8.0 at some books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cubs vs Dodgers predictions
Picks made on 7/07/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cubs vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Thursday, July 7, 2022
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: MARQ, SNLA
Cubs vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Mark Leiter Jr. (2-2, 4.85 ERA): Leiter has bounced back and forth between the Cubs’ rotation and bullpen this season. He's coming off his best performance of the year where he limited the Boston Red Sox to one run on three hits, while striking out five in 5 1-3 innings.
Tony Gonsolin (10-0, 1.54 ERA): You can make the argument that Gonsolin has been the best pitcher in baseball this season. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start this season and has only surrendered five total runs since the start of June.
Weather
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Key injuries
Betting trend to know
Tony Gonsolin has earned a win in nine of his last 11 starts while the Dodgers have covered the run line in each of his last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Dodgers
Cubs vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
As the first half of the season winds down, the Dodgers look every bit of the World Series betting favorite they were expected to be. The lineup is dangerous and as deep as any in baseball but it’s the starting pitching that has taken them over the top, particularly the breakout of a guy like Tony Gonsolin.
The right-hander looks unhittable at times this season. He mixes a solid fastball with a devastating splitter and slider. As a result, he hasn’t really had a bad outing this season and is pitching to an expected ERA of 2.81 and limiting opponents to a .217 expected batting average.
Tonight, he’ll stare across at a Cubs lineup that can be qualified as surprisingly good at times this season, but that won’t intimidate Gonsolin who has been fantastic against some of the best lineups in baseball, including the Braves, Phillies, and Mets.
The Cubbies counter Gonsolin with Mark Leiter Jr., and this is where the biggest edge lies. Leiter has bounced back-and-forth between long relief man and starter, and I guess you can say the results have been OK. The right-hander has an expected ERA of 4.01 and is allowing a .258 expected batting average to opponents.
Unfortunately for the Cubbies, OK might not be good enough against this Dodgers lineup. Los Angeles ranks fourth in batting average and first in OPS when going against right-handed pitching this season.
The other problem for the Cubs is that if the Dodgers get to Leiter (who has only pitched more than four innings once this season), they’ll have to hand the ball off to a struggling bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA and 21st in opponent batting average.
The value here is with the Dodgers run line which they have covered in each of Gonsolin’s last six starts. The Dodgers always seem to get up when Gonsolin gets the ball, giving him nearly five runs of support per start.
He then in turn should be able to pitch deep into this ball game and hand the ball off to a solid Dodgers bullpen. Quite frankly, the price on the Dodgers to win by a couple of runs should be higher.
Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 (-130 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
8.0 feels pretty on point when it comes to the total, but if we have to lean one way, it will be towards the Over.
For starters, it’s the Dodgers. Led by the likes of Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman, they lead the NL in scoring, plating five runs per game. And they should be able to get to that average going against an average pitcher in Leiter, combined with a sub-par bullpen.
On the other side, the Cubs have been surprisingly solid at the dish, particularly against right-handers, where they rank ninth in batting average and 12th in OPS. They also come into this game playing well, winning six of their last eight games — averaging 5.75 runs per contest.
Now, don’t expect them to do that kind of damage against Gonsolin, but they should be able to muster enough to help send this one Over the modest total.
Prediction: Over 8 (-115 at FanDuel)
Best bet
It’s hard not to love the way Gonsolin is pitching at the moment and you can make the argument that he is getting stronger as the year goes along. He is coming off maybe his best start of the year, limiting the Padres to one run on four hits while striking out eight in 7 2-3 innings of work.
Since the start of May, he has made 11 starts, winning nine of them. The Cubs have a solid offense, but as the old adage goes, “Good pitching beats good hitting,” and not many are pitching better than Gonsolin right now.
With the Dodgers offense likely to continue to do its thing against this Cubbies pitching staff, back Gonsolin to keep his record perfect and get his 11th win of the season.
Pick: Gonsolin to record a win (+105 at DraftKings)
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