The New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants will begin a weekend series this evening in the Bronx.
The Yankees will look to continue their recent domination over the Giants, with nine wins in the last ten head-to-head meetings, including four straight. With two suspect pitchers on the mound, there is some uncertainty about which side to favor, but we believe the Giants have an edge here. That said, our best bet is found in the prop market.
My Giants vs. Yankees predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet Friday, April 11.
Giants vs Yankees prediction
My Giants vs Yankees best bet: Tyler Fitzgerald hit (-121 at Caesars)
The weather is the biggest story in this game and makes the handicap much more difficult. We'll have two pitchers towing the mound today who are highly exploitable, and naturally, you'd be drawn to the Over because of it.
New York Yankees veteran Marcus Stroman has gotten off to a terrible start this season, and his opposition has issues, too. The San Francisco Giants will send Robbie Ray out. He's been average this year, but a look under the hood – particularly in the barrel rate area – shows that some rocky times could be ahead.
Again, the problem with acting on that offensive instinct is the weather. Winds will be blowing at Yankee Stadium; we'll see some periods of rain and temperatures in the mid-30s. Ugliness all around. It's also been reflected in the market, with the total ticking down a half run since opening. With that in mind, what should we do for today's best bet? Head to the prop market, of course.
We're going with Tyler Fitzgerald to get a hit. The matchup is a nice one.
It's hard to make much sense of this price point—one that I have at almost -150. Sure, the Giants shortstop has only hit .219 this season, but it's not like the approach hasn't been good.
Fitzgerald is one of the more unlucky Giants hitters this season. He'll enter today with an expected batting average and slugging percentage higher than what we've seen so far. In addition to that, he's heated up a bit over two games, with three hits in his last nine plate appearances. These are all nice things, but what matters most is the pitcher he sees tonight. That's Marcus Stroman, who I'm likely the lowest on amongst the Yankees pitchers.
More importantly, though, he throws a pitch mix of sinker and slurve, which is quite desirable for Fitzgerald. Entering today, Fitzgerald has hit an eye-popping .500 against the sinker and slightly below that mark against the slurve. I'll take my chances against this number that Fitzgerald can deliver.
Giants vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Tyler Fitzgerald hit
Trent Grisham hit
Giants F5 +0.5
We added Grisham to the mix to get a hit for our same-game parlay. Surprisingly, he's got the highest hard-hit rate against the fastball this season on the Yankees roster. Ray may elect to move away from that pitch against some of the big-time power bats at the top of the lineup, like Aaron Judge. However, he still throws it over 60% of the time, which means there will likely be chances for bats like Grisham at the end of the lineup to see that pitch.
I rounded things off with the Giants' spread price after five innings. This is simply a bet on Robbie Ray's better performance than Marcus Stroman. Ray's issues are primarily centered around a bad barrel rate, which would be less of an issue with the weather. Stroman's are much more widespread.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Yankees odds
Giants vs Yankees live odds
Giants vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: San Francisco +100 | New York -120
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-208) | New York -1.5 (+175)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Giants vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.20 Units / 66% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Yankees.
How to watch Giants vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, New York, NY |
| Date | Friday, 4-11-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCS-Bay Area, YES |
| Giants starting pitcher | Robbie Ray (2-0, 3.18 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Marcus Stroman (0-0, 7.27 ERA) |
Giants vs Yankees latest injuries
Giants vs Yankees weather
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