The Chicago Cubs and Baltimore Orioles begin a three-game series at Camden Yards tonight.
Baltimore has rolled to the best record in the AL thanks to its high-scoring offense and my Cubs vs. Orioles predictions for today expect plenty of runs, particularly from the home side.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this interleague clash.
Cubs vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Orioles team total Over 4.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Chicago Cubs are sending Jameson Taillon to the mound tonight and while the veteran righty has a sparkling 2.99 ERA this season, he has a tough matchup. Keep in mind that Taillon's expected ERA is at 3.60 and he seldom makes batters miss while ranking in the bottom 25th percentile in ground-ball rate.
That's a bad combination against a Baltimore Orioles lineup that leads the majors in runs per game (5.16) and slugging percentage (.460). That SLG is a whopping 20 points higher than the second-place Dodgers and the O's have bumped that number up to .479 over the last 30 days. This is a lineup that leads the majors in hard-hit rate (44%) and average exit velocity (90.2 mph) while ranking second in barrel rate (9.8%) so don't expect regression anytime soon.
Taillon has also struggled against the Orioles giving up eight hits and four runs in 5 1/3 innings against them last year at Wrigley Field. He also made three starts at Camden Yards in 2022 and pitched to 5.11 ERA with an OBA of .277 across 12 1/3 innings. And this version of the Orioles is better than either of those lineups as players like Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman have come even more into their own in 2024.
Things won't be any better behind Taillon with Chicago's bullpen 19th in the majors in ERA (4.21) and 26th in WAR (0.3).
Cubs vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Orioles TT Over 4.5
Jameson Taillon Under 1.5 walks
Dean Kremer Over 1.5 walks
As productive as Baltimore's sluggers have been, the one thing they don't do well is generate walks. They have the third-lowest walk rate in the majors and Taillon is in the 90th percentile in walk rate while going Under this number in seven of his last eight starts.
While Taillon doesn't give out many free passes, Orioles starter Dean Kremer has struggled with his control. Kremer has walked nine batters in his last three starts and has gone Over this number in five of his last seven. That's bad news against a Cubs lineup that has the fourth-highest walk rate in the majors.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Orioles odds
Cubs vs Orioles live odds
Cubs vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-165) | Baltimore -1.5 (+140)
- Moneyline: Chicago +130 | Baltimore -155
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)
Cubs vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Orioles have the second-best record in the majors at 57-33 and are 29-17 at home.
- After starting the season 17-9, the Cubs have gone just 25-40. They've also struggled on the road where they are 17-28.
- Chicago was batting well at the start of the season but is slugging just .359 while plating 3.69 runs/game since May 1.
- Kremer has a 3.93 ERA with an impressive 1.09 WHIP in 10 starts but he sits in the bottom 10th percentile in barrel rate (12.8%) and xERA (5.27).
Cubs vs Orioles trend
The Orioles have hit the First Five Innings Team Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games (+10.55 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Orioles
Cubs vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, MASN2 |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (5-4, 2.99 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Dean Kremer (4-4, 3.93 ERA) |
Cubs vs Orioles latest injuries
Cubs vs Orioles weather
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