It’s an NL Central showdown at Great American Ballpark with the Chicago Cubs visiting the Cincinnati Reds to start their three-game set on Monday.
The Cubs will have veteran starter Jameson Taillon toeing the rubber, but our Cubs vs. Reds predictions are targeting Reds rookie Carson Spiers, who’ll be making his first start since being activated off the injured list. Find out why in our MLB picks below.
Cubs vs Reds prediction
My best bet
Carson Spiers Over 3.5 strikeouts (-128 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Cincinnati Reds righty Carson Spiers is returning from the 15-day IL following a shoulder impingement. His MRI came back clean on July 13 following his July 12 start and he threw a bullpen session without a setback or aggravating the injury last Friday.
Considering he’s closed with a 4.5 strikeout total ahead of each of his past five starts and has 4+ strikeouts in five of his past six trips to the bump, I think we’re landing a decreased total because of the IL stint.
I’m not concerned about his workload, though. The 26-year-old rookie has averaged 92.6 pitches across his past six appearances and he also pitched 5+ innings in five of those six outings. Plus, he’s well-rested.
He sports a respectable 21.7 K% and 8.46 K/9 over the stretch since being stretched out, too, and the Chicago Cubs profile as a favorable opponent for punchouts with a 23.9 K% against righties that’s ninth highest in the majors.
Additionally, Spiers has spun it a little better than his surface numbers with his 3.86 xFIP below his 4.05 ERA during the highlighted six-game run, and there should also be a small statistical correction coming to his .309 BABIP.
Finally, the Chicago offense has also been beyond pedestrian out of the All-Star break with just 2.77 runs per game and a 27th-ranked .263 wOBA and 69 wRC+.
Cubs vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Carson Spiers Over 3.5 strikeouts
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Michael Busch Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz has both the handedness and home splits in his favor for Monday’s contest, and he’s rolling along a nice heater out of the All-Star break, with an 11-for-32 stretch that includes six runs and two RBI. He’s also locked into the No. 2 spot in the Cincy lineup and sports a high-end .379 wOBA and 142 wRC+ against righties for the season.
Chicago first baseman Michael Busch has had similar success against rightie this season, with a .342 wOBA and a 122 wRC+, and he also hits second in the order. The difference is Busch has been slumping with a 6-for-33 run and just three runs and three RBI out of the break. It does set him up for positive regression given his highlighted solid numbers against righties for the year, though.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Reds odds
Cubs vs Reds live odds
Cubs vs Reds opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-220) | Cincinnati -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Chicago -110 | Cincinnati -110
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Cubs vs Reds spread and Over/Under analysis
- There has been back-and-forth action on this game, with Cincinnati opening as a -107 favorite through Pinnacle before Chicago becoming the chalk early Monday morning. The Reds returned to trade at -108.
- There was similar line movement at bet365 and I don’t suspect there to be major adjustments leading into the opening pitch.
- The total for this series opener has also been on the move at both Pinnacle and bet365. Pinnacle opened at 9 and moved to 9.5 before returning to 9 with the Over carrying the higher vig as of Monday morning, while bet365 just moved to 9.5 with the steeper odds on the Under after opening at 9.
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Cubs vs Reds trend
Carson Spiers has logged 4+ strikeouts in five of his past six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Reds
Cubs vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Monday, 7-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, Bally Sports Ohio |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (7-5, 2.96 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Carson Spiers (3-2, 3.83 ERA) |
Cubs vs Reds latest injuries
Cubs vs Reds weather
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