The Milwaukee Brewers' World Series odds took a massive hit yesterday when they were doubled up 6-3 by the Arizona Cardinals in Game 1 of this wild-card matchup. MLB odds have installed the Brew Crew as home favorites once again, but can Arizona pull off back-to-back road upsets?
Zac Gallen will take the mound for the D-Backs and try to close this series out but don't expect Milwaukee's bats to go down without a fight. Find out how I'm fading Arizona's hurler in my MLB picks for the Diamondbacks vs. Brewers. Be sure to also check out Covers' MLB playoff predictions for more postseason analysis.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers odds
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Game 2 odds
Diamondbacks vs Brewers series odds
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee BrewersDiamondbacks vs Brewers predictions
The Arizona Diamondbacks hand the ball off to Zac Gallen in Game 2, opening the door for a good fade opportunity. Gallen was a Cy Young candidate throughout the first half of the campaign but was extremely volatile over the second half — and I do not trust this inconsistency.
The righty has surrendered four or more earned runs in four of his past seven starts, and his underlying metrics are not good either. Entering this matchup, Gallen ranks in the bottom half among pitchers in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
For this matchup, I'm going to fade Gallen in the strikeout department. Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 5.5 via PointsBet, a total he has stayed Under in his previous start against Milwaukee.
The Milwaukee Brewers’ lineup may not instill a lot of fear in their opposition, but they have been excellent in avoiding the punchout recently. Since July 1, Milwaukee has ranked ninth in the league in K rate when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Wednesday’s projected starting lineup, six of the nine hitters own a K percentage south of 23% this season. Not only did Brandon Pfaadt stay Under this strikeout total in Game 1, but each of the past five starting pitchers to face the Brewers have done so.
Despite its lack of power, the one thing this Milwaukee lineup can do is put the ball in play, and I think that will bode well in fading Gallen’s strikeout prop.
My best bet: Zac Gallen Under 5.5 strikeouts (-130)
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Diamondbacks vs Brewers same-game parlay
Gallen Under 5.5 Ks
Brewers ML
Yelich 1+ hit
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While Gallen’s volatility is untrustworthy, right-hander Freddy Peralta enters this contest for the Brewers in a much more consistently dominant form. He has allowed more than three earned runs just once over his past 11 starts, posting a 6-2 record with a 2.44 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over that stretch.
Not only has Peralta been more consistent than Gallen, but his analytics are also far superior as he ranks higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, whiff rate, K percentage, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, neither lineup is anything too menacing to be concerned with.
With that said, if anyone can get it going for the Brewers in Game 2, perhaps it is their second-best hitter in Christian Yelich. Through 14 career plate appearances against Gallen, Yelich boasts a .286 BA and .297 xBA. He has also recorded at least one hit in nine of his past 11 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Diamondbacks vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Brewers opened as a –125 favorite and have since been bet up to -130. I expect this line to only continue to widen as Milwaukee boasts arguably the better pitcher, lineup, and bullpen along with home-field advantage.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 7.5 and remains at that number. It’s tough to get a number to drop to seven regardless of the pitching matchup, so I think the buyback would be quick if it moves in that direction, but I would be shocked if the market lets a Gallen-vs-Peralta playoff matchup reach a total of eight.
Trend to know
Arizona has lost in four of Gallen’s past seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
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Diamondbacks vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47 ERA): When Gallen is on, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, when he has been off, he has been just as bad recently. It is this volatility that I do not trust, given that he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his past seven starts but allowed four or more in each of the other four.
Freddy Peralta (12-10, 3.86 ERA): Peralta’s 3.86 ERA does not do his campaign justice, due to it being weighed down from a poor start. He found his rhythm over the second half of the season, going 6-2 with a 2.44 ERA over his past 11 starts and allowing more than three earned runs just once over that span. This success is likely to continue against the D-Backs, a team whom Peralta is 3-0 in his career against with a 0.55 ERA and 0.61 WHIP.
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