Two NL West foes square off on Tuesday night as the Los Angeles Dodgers head south to face the San Diego Padres. L.A. holds a 6.5-game lead in the divisional standings going into this short two-game series.
Our Dodgers vs. Padres predictions expect a low-scoring game with a solid pitching matchup on the docket.
Read on for my MLB picks for Tuesday, July 30.
Dodgers vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Tyler Glasnow was unhittable for much of the season but has experienced some turbulence lately, allowing 12 earned runs across his last three starts. Is now the time to jump ship on the hard-throwing righthander?
I don’t think so. He’s been elite in 2024, ranking in the 95th percentile or above in xERA (2.63), xBA (.196), and strikeout rate (33%). The towering hurler has faced the San Diego Padres twice this season and has been effective both times, allowing three earned on three hits while striking out 13 across 12 innings of work.
The Padres have a decent lineup but it hasn’t been anything special lately with a 98 wRC+ (19th) and .300 wOBA (22nd) against RHP since July 7. They have tended to get into low-scoring games against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park, cashing four straight Unders.
Mike Shildt’s squad counters with Matt Waldron and his 3.64 ERA, 3.68 xERA, and 3.80 FIP. In two starts against L.A. this season, he’s allowed three earned runs on five hits while striking out 10 batters across 10 1/3 IP.
The knuckleballer has been an Unders machine as San Diego is 6-14-1 O/U in his 21 starts. While the Dodgers are always a tough matchup, the lineup is less fearsome without sluggers Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
Freeman may make his return to the lineup with today being the earliest he could return from the family emergency list. Either way, this lineup has something to prove against Waldron as the projected starters are 0-for-21 with six strikeouts against him.
Both teams should be in relatively safe hands once the respective managers call on their bullpens. L.A. has the seventh-best ERA (3.64) and sixth-best WHIP (1.19) out of the pen while San Diego relievers have combined for a strong 3.63 xFIP in July.
Dodgers vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Matt Waldron Over 4.5 strikeouts
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
This may seem like a counterintuitive SGP at first, but allow me to explain. Waldron has gone Over his strikeout prop in four of his last seven games and faces a Dodgers lineup with a few notable absences. L.A. is typically difficult to strike out but that hasn’t been the case lately as they are tied for the league’s highest K rate (27.1%) against RHP since July.
Shohei Ohtani’s total bases prop doesn’t seem to align with the Under, but the rest of L.A.’s projected lineup is very underwhelming and Ohtani could do a fair amount of damage without the Over coming into play. He’s obliterated RHP with an awe-inspiring 214 wRC+ and .474 wOBA, and Waldron can be beaten by left-handed batters (4.33 xFIP).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Padres odds
Dodgers vs Padres live odds
Dodgers vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+120) | San Diego +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -150 | San Diego +125
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Dodgers vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Padres are just 1-4 in Waldron’s last five starts while the Dodgers are 4-1 in their last five games with Glasnow on the bump.
- The Dodgers have cashed the Under in 26 of their last 46 away games.
- The Dodgers have hit the five five innings (F5) team total Under in 10 of their last 17 games.
Dodgers vs Padres trend
The Padres are 6-14-1 O/U when Matt Waldron is the starting pitcher. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres.
Dodgers vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet Los Angeles, SDPA |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Tyler Glasnow (8-6, 3.47 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Matt Waldron (6-9, 3.64 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries
Dodgers vs Padres weather
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